CryptoQuant said historical market data shows a strong pattern for U.S. equities after midterm elections, while Bitcoin has also delivered positive returns in the three midterm cycles available in its trading history. According to the firm, the S&P 500 rose in all 19 one-year periods following U.S. midterm elections since 1950, with an average gain of 15.4%.
Bitcoin showed a similar direction over a much smaller sample. In the 12 months following the 2014, 2018 and 2022 U.S. midterm elections, BTC gained 24.5%, 44.9% and 92.3%, respectively. CryptoQuant also pointed to a sharp short-term drawdown after the 2018 midterms, when Bitcoin fell 45.5% in the first month after the vote, highlighting that near-term volatility remained part of the picture.
The firm said three historical observations are not enough to establish a necessary link between midterm elections and Bitcoin price appreciation. It added that the next move in BTC will still depend on the interest-rate backdrop, regulatory developments and capital inflows. CryptoQuant also cited data showing that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a combined net inflow of $241.1 million from Sept. 28 to Oct. 2. The analysis said the end of the election could ease political uncertainty, but whether Bitcoin can keep rising will depend on Treasury yields, ETF flows and changes in crypto regulation.
CryptoQuant said on Oct. 6 that the S&P 500 has risen in all 19 one-year periods following U.S. midterm elections since 1950, with an average gain of 15.4%.
Bitcoin also showed gains after the last three midterm elections
According to the firm’s data, Bitcoin rose 24.5%, 44.9% and 92.3% in the 12 months following the 2014, 2018 and 2022 U.S. midterm elections, respectively.
Still, the short-term picture was not always positive. After the 2018 midterms, Bitcoin fell 45.5% in the first month, a sign that near-term volatility remained significant.
CryptoQuant says the sample size is limited
CryptoQuant said Bitcoin has only three historical observations tied to U.S. midterm election cycles, which is not enough to prove a necessary relationship between the elections and later price gains. The firm said future performance will still depend on the interest-rate environment, regulatory progress and capital inflows.
Spot Bitcoin ETF flows remain in focus
The analysis also cited data showing that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted a combined net inflow of $241.1 million between Sept. 28 and Oct. 2. It added that the end of the election could ease political uncertainty, but whether Bitcoin can extend gains will still depend on U.S. Treasury yields, ETF fund flows and changes in crypto regulatory policy.
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