Binance founder Changpeng Zhao said at Bitcoin Asia that Bitcoin hitting $1 million would be a major marker of a true “Bitcoin Century,” and that he believes it will happen sooner than a 25-year horizon. Even so, Zhao said the more important development is broad real-world use: Bitcoin payments at scale, and Bitcoin held in retirement products, pension funds, investment funds and sovereign reserves.
The remarks came during a featured fireside conversation at Bitcoin Asia with Kevin, host of the “Wind Shift Happens” podcast, according to PANews’ transcript of the event.
What would make it a real Bitcoin Century
Asked what would need to happen over the next 25 years for people to look back and call it the “Bitcoin Century,” Zhao said a $1 million Bitcoin would be one clear sign. He added that he does not think the market needs 25 years to get there.
Still, he put utility ahead of price. In his view, the bigger milestone is large-scale adoption in payments and broader acceptance of Bitcoin as an asset held in retirement accounts, pension funds, funds and reserves. Over a 25-year window, he said, those changes should happen, along with more that cannot yet be fully mapped out.
What people may be underestimating
Zhao said people often overestimate what can be done in one year and underestimate what can be done in ten, and that a century is a very long time frame. Looking only at the next decade, he said, a large amount of infrastructure is likely to be built.
He pointed to a sharp shift in how traditional finance has viewed Bitcoin over the past two years. Over the last year, and even in recent months, tokenized stocks have also started growing quickly. Zhao said some tokenized equity projects have been live for only two or three months and are already expanding fast. Over a ten-year period, he said, that area could become very large.
Payments, AI, financial infrastructure, stablecoins and tokenization are all likely to change substantially over the next ten years, he said, adding that the industry is living through one of the best periods in history for opportunity.
How tokenization and payments feed back into Bitcoin
Zhao described tokenization and payments as mutually reinforcing with Bitcoin’s growth. Bitcoin’s own blockchain is not where most tokenized assets are issued today, he said, but gains elsewhere in crypto often help Bitcoin too. The relationship also works in reverse: developments that benefit Bitcoin can lift other parts of the industry.
Someone who first learns about Bitcoin may later learn about other blockchains and tokens, he said. In the same way, someone who enters a crypto platform through tokenized stocks may eventually buy Bitcoin.
He used Asia as an example. Many investors there want exposure to U.S. stocks, Zhao said, but opening a U.S. brokerage account can be difficult. Even when an account is available, trading hours may be inconvenient, sometimes falling between 11 p.m. and 4 a.m. If those stocks are tokenized, more people can reach the U.S. market through crypto platforms and buy assets that were previously hard to access. Once they are on a crypto platform, he said, Bitcoin becomes much easier to discover. Over time, that effect compounds.
For that reason, Zhao said tokenized stocks are not only good for equity markets but also good for Bitcoin. He framed the sector as an ecosystem, not a fight between isolated projects.
Bitcoin does not determine whether governments are strong or weak
When asked whether Bitcoin will weaken governments or make early-adopting states stronger, Zhao said Bitcoin itself does neither. What matters, he argued, is how governments behave.
Some governments seek more power and tighter control, he said, but history does not always show that to be best for citizens or economic performance. In some cases, relatively weaker governments can produce stronger economies. Zhao used the United States as an example, saying power there is not highly concentrated, presidential terms are limited and the two-party system keeps policy contested. The structure may look inefficient, he said, but it may also be part of why the country became one of the world’s strongest economies.
He applied the same logic to regulation. Zhao said the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has in some areas stepped back and acknowledged that certain matters are outside its authority, which he said has helped the industry. He contrasted that with former SEC Chair Gary Gensler, whom he described as wanting to bring too many things under regulatory control, which in his view held growth back.
Zhao also said Bitcoin gives individuals more monetary sovereignty because it is decentralized, but he rejected the idea that it operates beyond oversight. Bitcoin’s privacy design is imperfect, he said, and on-chain transactions are easy to trace.
Policy choices remain decisive. If a country makes holding Bitcoin illegal, the industry will struggle there, he said. If a country taxes every transaction at 36%, that can also choke the sector. A government may appear powerful under that model, but if activity falls to zero, 36% of zero is still zero. By contrast, he said, a more reasonable 6% tax on a $1 trillion market would generate meaningful revenue. In voting countries, he added, citizens ultimately shape those choices too.
Governments are paying more attention, but frameworks remain limited
Zhao said most governments are now taking Bitcoin relatively seriously, yet many still do not have crypto regulatory frameworks. In his telling, only a small number of jurisdictions have built out complete systems.
He said some officials do understand Bitcoin, but they may still be in the minority. Many governments are run by older generations that tend to adopt new technologies more slowly and can be more influenced by negative coverage in traditional media. That has helped keep views on crypto cautious, and at times negative.
Even so, Zhao said the tone is changing. Based on his meetings with heads of state and political figures, more leaders now recognize crypto as a new technology and see a need to adopt it. Some still carry biases, including the belief that Bitcoin is mainly used for illicit activity, but he said more people are now pushing back on that narrative with facts.
Real adoption versus public relations
Asked whether leaders are seriously considering Bitcoin or simply trying to look current, Zhao said nearly every leader he has met wants to improve their country. But he also said some governments move only because they feel they have to.
He said those cases are usually easy to spot. A country may roll out a framework that is heavily restrictive and looks more like a public-relations exercise. Licensing can become so slow and difficult that almost nothing happens in practice.
By contrast, Zhao said the countries that invite him to visit are usually more progressive and genuinely interested in adopting crypto. In his words, the list of places he visits can often reveal which jurisdictions are more crypto-friendly.
Zhao’s policy advice: framework first, then reserves, stablecoins and tokenization
If he were advising a major government today, Zhao said the first step would be to create a crypto regulatory framework. That is only a starting point, he added. Governments also need to keep reviewing what works, what does not and how the rules should be revised over time.
He said regulatory focus has shifted over the years. For a long period, centralized exchanges were the main target. Over the last one to two years, many governments have started paying closer attention to stablecoins. Zhao called that a good thing and pointed to debate in the United States around the GENIUS and CLARITY bills.
He also said many countries still do not have national crypto reserves, and that he generally advises them to build such reserves because they matter for long-term national development.
Another gap, he said, is sovereign stablecoin issuance. Countries need to bring their own currencies onto blockchains so they can capture on-chain liquidity in local currency and support broader international use of that currency.
Zhao also highlighted tokenization as a major policy area. Beyond stocks and conventional financial instruments, he said many countries are discussing tokenization of rare minerals, real estate, cultural assets and art. They see it as a route to attract capital into the country or make domestic assets easier for overseas investors to buy.
Which countries are moving fastest
Zhao said different jurisdictions are advancing on different fronts. In his view, the United Arab Emirates may currently have the most progressive crypto regulation. He pointed to ADGM, the Abu Dhabi Global Market, which he said granted Binance.com a global license allowing it to operate nearly all products. Zhao called that a major development. He added that the UAE has not yet issued a major stablecoin, though he has heard discussions are underway.
On the United States, Zhao said the country has done more on stablecoins and exchange oversight. Historically, he said, regulation leaned on MSB, or money transmitter-style licensing. His impression now is that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is moving quickly at the federal level, especially on futures and derivatives licensing, which he said is good for the industry.
He also cited Japan as moving forward, said Hong Kong is developing quickly, and described Singapore as relatively more conservative today while still continuing to act.
Pakistan, he said, is also moving fast. Zhao said he had just met with officials there. Regulation is advancing quickly, though execution has not fully caught up. One example he gave is that exchanges there still do not have local customer fund bank accounts. He said that is being worked on, and that Pakistan has not yet issued a stablecoin.
Zhao said Kazakhstan is moving very quickly as well, with strong banking support. He added that Binance Pay can work with the QR code system that is widely used there. Kyrgyzstan, he said, should also see progress soon, and he plans to visit both countries next week. Overall, Zhao said, many countries are moving quickly.
Misreading Bitcoin may be riskier than adopting it
Asked whether any major government has completely misunderstood Bitcoin, Zhao declined to name one. But he said many countries still view Bitcoin as dangerous, when in his view the greater danger may be not using it at all because that means missing the trend.
He compared the issue to AI. A country that refuses to invest in AI or build its domestic AI industry would be taking a real risk, he said. AI comes with risks, but proper use can create enormous value. He said the same is true for Bitcoin and crypto more broadly, and added that misunderstandings remain common.
Zhao says Bitcoin will surpass gold in importance
On whether Bitcoin could become more important than gold as a strategic reserve asset, Zhao’s answer was direct: yes. He said Bitcoin will definitely become more important than gold.
He acknowledged that large countries need time to change. Governments already have full systems for evaluating and holding gold, and moving toward Bitcoin or other crypto assets would take years. But he said the transition will happen.
Zhao also called Bitcoin a better asset than gold. He noted that Peter Schiff would not agree, and said he has debated Schiff before, but did not soften his view that Bitcoin will become much more important.
The main scenario where Bitcoin believers could be wrong
Kevin asked where long-term Bitcoin believers might be mistaken. Zhao said there is one small possibility: a digital currency better than Bitcoin could emerge and surpass Bitcoin before Bitcoin surpasses gold.
Even so, he said that probability looks low based on current conditions. Zhao said he expects Bitcoin to overtake gold quickly. He put the gap at roughly 10x today and said it could happen in the next bull market.
How a state reserve portfolio could be built
If he were allocating reserves for a country, Zhao said he would use a simple method. Start with the top five cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, remove stablecoins because a state may already hold dollar reserves, and then allocate by market-cap weighting.
He described that as the simplest and most market-based approach. Under that structure, he said, Bitcoin would usually account for more than 50%, Ethereum would be around 10% to 20%, and BNB would also be included.
Why not hold only Bitcoin
Kevin pressed the Bitcoin-maximalist case and asked why a country should not simply hold Bitcoin. Zhao said he understands the argument and noted that conference organizer David Bailey is a Bitcoin maximalist and also a close friend.
His response was that an industry built around Bitcoin alone would likely grow much more slowly. Other blockchains do not take value away from Bitcoin, he said. Their existence, including Ethereum’s, has also helped Bitcoin grow. Without them, he argued, Bitcoin might be smaller rather than larger.
Zhao said the sector is not a zero-sum game. What helps Bitcoin can help other blockchains, and what helps other chains can feed back into Bitcoin. Bitcoin still has distinct advantages, he said: it has the largest market cap, is the most decentralized and is likely to remain a reserve currency for a long time. Other blockchains, however, have more room to experiment and can test new ideas faster. If Bitcoin later absorbs some of those innovations, he said, that would be fine too.
He also looked back at language used in the industry. Early on, he said, the whole crypto sector was effectively called the Bitcoin industry before “crypto” became the broader label. He said “crypto” is not especially friendly to ordinary people because it sounds intimidating and overly mathematical, while “Web3” is somewhat better. The name itself, he added, is not what matters most.
What matters, in his view, is supporting the growth of the full industry. That means multiple blockchains, multiple exchanges, multiple decentralized exchanges, multiple perpetual DEXs and innovation on many fronts. Competition, he said, creates more innovation and momentum. Since decentralization is at the core of the industry, he argued, the market should accept “multiple everything” instead of framing the space as one camp versus another.
What could drive the next cycle
Zhao said bluntly that he is not sure what the next cycle’s main driver will be. Right now, he said, real-world assets and AI both look strong. Stablecoins will keep growing, centralized exchanges will keep growing, decentralized exchanges will keep growing, meme coins will keep growing and NFTs may return in some form.
A lot of areas will continue expanding, he said, but the true breakout trend is hard to predict. He said he would not have predicted ICOs in early 2017, yet six months later they became a major force. Six months before the NFT boom, he said, he also would not have predicted how large it would become.
For that reason, Zhao said the next big trend will likely come from founders and builders inside the industry rather than from forecasters trying to name it in advance.
AI agents will likely trade before they pay
Kevin then turned to AI and asked what currency billions of AI agents would use if they can buy, sell, negotiate and transact on their own. Zhao said the answer is crypto.
As for which crypto, he said AI agents will probably start with stablecoins. Once systems can handle stablecoins, adding Bitcoin becomes easy. From there, BNB, Ethereum, Solana and other blockchain assets can also be added.
Zhao said some large AI companies may eventually issue their own tokens. He said he has already discussed token issuance with several top AI companies. One reason is the immense capital required for data centers. Zhao said 1 gigawatt of compute requires around $30 billion to $50 billion. Many AI companies have high valuations but do not have enough capital to build the compute they need. Some want to build hundreds of gigawatts over the coming years, which could require trillions of dollars.
That, he said, could lead them to issue data center tokens. In such a model, token holders might receive rewards tied to future use of the data center. If a company issues a token, it will want to maximize utility by using it for subscription payments and tying it to different language models and services. In Zhao’s view, utility tokens from AI companies are not difficult to imagine.
He also pointed to projects with close ties to OpenAI that have already launched tokens, including Worldcoin. While he said such projects may not yet have very strong utility models today, he noted that their teams are indeed close to AI companies.
Zhao said that when AI eventually handles payments for people, it will use crypto. But he added that AI payments will probably arrive later than AI trading. Booking hotels and paying bills through agents is not the highest priority for top AI companies right now, he said. They are more focused on making agents smarter so they can find the best options, while users can still swipe a credit card themselves at the end.
Trading is different. It requires gathering information quickly, reacting quickly, reading charts and executing strategies, Zhao said. AI can improve efficiency materially there, possibly by 10x. In that setting, he said, users are unlikely to want an AI system that stops after analysis and waits for manual approval. They will want the agent to place the order directly. Because of that, Zhao said AI will probably trade for people before it pays for them.
Bitcoin as a savings technology, at least for now
Kevin asked whether that means Bitcoin remains mostly a savings technology in both the human economy and the AI economy, while stablecoins and other crypto assets are used for machine-to-machine commerce and trading. Zhao said that is largely true for the next stage.
Still, he said native crypto payments should expand over time as more people use stablecoins first. Many users are still not comfortable spending Bitcoin because of price volatility. But once payment rails are fully open and crypto is widely accepted, long-term Bitcoin holders may stop converting to stablecoins before spending. They may prefer to spend what they already hold rather than take the extra step of moving into a fiat-pegged asset.
Zhao used his own behavior as an example. He said he holds BNB and some Bitcoin, and that he mainly spends BNB. He does not first sell BNB into dollars before making purchases because that is inconvenient. When he uses the Binance Card, the system deducts BNB based on the transaction amount. He said he does not focus too much on the exchange rate at that exact moment, since prices move and may also move higher. He simply spends at the prevailing price of that day or minute.
His conclusion was that people may begin with stablecoin payments, but as payment networks spread, they will increasingly spend the crypto assets they already hold.
What Zhao hopes to contribute
At the end of the conversation, Kevin asked what Zhao hopes his own contribution to the “Bitcoin Century” will be. Zhao said he does not really know. His approach, he said, has always been to do what he can. If his capacity is limited, he contributes a little; if he can do more, he contributes more.
So far, Zhao said, he believes he has already contributed to the crypto industry within the limits of his abilities. As long as he is still able to help in the future, he said, he will continue to do his best for the industry.