Market Cycle: Bottom Rises, $60k as Key Support
CZ asserts the four-year cycle pattern remains valid. Current price drawdown is ~50%, far less than the 80% declines of previous cycles (e.g., BTC falling to $16k after Luna collapse and FTX crash in 2022). Now BTC is 4-5x higher, and each cycle starts from a higher base. Technically, historical highs (e.g., $60k) often become future support, but CZ admits he is not a skilled technical analyst and avoids predicting bottoms or duration.
This cycle differs with state-level backing, institutional adoption (BlackRock), BNB ETF listings, stablecoin issuance, and RWA innovation. Cycles do not end at the same level; it's a spiral with rising bottoms.
Institutional Leverage: No Defaults, Risks Controlled
Regarding high-leverage products, CZ notes no institution has disclosed near-bankruptcy in the past six months. Despite some high-yield stablecoin circular lending products, their scale is small relative to the overall industry size, making risks manageable.
Crypto-TradFi Convergence: Not a Separate Industry
CZ views crypto as a new technology enabling fast, low-cost, transparent financial transactions. Traditional finance can use blockchain; crypto companies can offer lending, savings, stock trading, and payments. The two should not be segmented; they will converge into fintech. On centralization vs decentralization, any platform or team has centralized elements, but technology drives decentralization. Centralized players that offer cheap, secure services will attract users via network effects. Both will coexist forever, though CZ is a strong proponent of decentralization.
L2 vs L1 Future: L1 Dominates, L2 as Transition
CZ compares BNB Chain and Ethereum. He advises developers to avoid major upgrades during bull markets; do them in calm bear markets. BNB Chain is developing a faster, cheaper version with more privacy controls. On Ethereum L2s, CZ believes Vitalik has realized L2s don't help L1; after ETH price decline, Vitalik refocused on L1. While strong L2 solutions exist, the long-term future is L1—as L1 speed increases, demand rises, leading to new L2-like solutions, forming an L1-L2 cycle.
Hyperliquid: Innovative Niche, Binance Cannot Compete
CZ calls Hyperliquid interesting, with founder Jeff having been part of Yzi Labs' early incubation. It proves a new, previously non-existent market segment—no KYC, claiming decentralization (via smart contract deposits/withdrawals), occupying a niche Binance cannot compete in. Despite a small team, the technological innovation is quite good.
Prediction Market Polymarket: Good Tools, CFTC Support
CZ sees prediction markets as a great invention. The CFTC chair's tone supports them, and many US government figures back Polymarket. Such tools provide price discovery and liquidity, benefiting consumers and the industry. There are already 100-1000 prediction market projects, and more will emerge. He hopes all execute responsibly.
Yzi Labs Portfolio: 70% Crypto, 20% AI, 10% Biotech
CZ reveals Yzi Labs' investment heuristic: ~70% crypto, 20% AI, 10% biotech. Philosophy: impact over ROI. Example: investing billions in a cheap cancer cure may lose money but cure millions; he'd rather lose that investment. Invested projects include: an artificial womb company (tested on pregnant mice, human application 5-10 years away), knee cartilage regeneration (3D-printed scaffold implanted to stimulate growth, early clinical stage). CZ says biotech firms excite him most.
AI Usage: Multiple Models, US vs China
CZ uses almost all phone AIs: OpenAI, Anthropic/Claude for coding. Traveling reveals some AIs are unavailable in certain countries (e.g., US AIs don't work in Hong Kong). He finds US LLMs more accurate; Chinese models (Deepseek, Kimi) are decent but less comprehensive. CZ notes AI competition is national—both US and China develop chips and data centers. Competition can accelerate progress, but AI is far more dangerous than crypto—it can hack computers, design nuclear weapons, and regulation is difficult. Crypto cannot destroy civilization, but AI might if misused.
Crypto's Future: Not Dying, AI+Blockchain Build New Finance
CZ firmly believes crypto will not die and will become a huge industry. While hot money flows to AI, people trade AI stocks via crypto, and AI contributes to crypto trading volume. Current payment systems don't support AI (need 2FA, passport KYC); blockchain is API-driven and friendlier to AI. Future financial systems will be built collaboratively by AI, blockchain, and internet. Even if some money goes to AI, eventually all money will flow on blockchains.