Market Cycle: Higher Lows, But No More Blind Predictions
CZ believes the four-year cycle pattern remains valid, with current prices down ~50% compared to 80% drawdowns in previous cycles (e.g., Bitcoin hit $16,000 after LUNA and FTX collapses in 2022). Now Bitcoin is 4–5 times higher, supported by national adoption, institutional involvement (BlackRock), and BNB ETF listings. Each cycle starts from a higher low. While he avoids pinpointing bottoms, historical highs (e.g., $60,000) often serve as future support.
Leverage Risk: Industry Healthier, No Major Bankruptcy
Compared to 2022, the scale of high-leverage products is now smaller, with no institutions close to bankruptcy. Some high-yield stablecoin loop lending exists, but overall leverage is better controlled.
Inevitable Convergence of TradFi and Crypto
CZ views crypto not as a standalone industry but as technology enabling fast, low-cost, transparent financial transactions. Traditional firms can build their own blockchains, while crypto companies offer lending, savings, and stock trading. The two will merge into a fintech sector. Centralized and decentralized will coexist; decentralization is the trend, but centralized players can provide cost-effective services with network effects.
Blockchain Diversity: Good, But Nations Need Time for Public Chains
Users should freely choose blockchains. Many countries desire national chains but need time to accept ceding monetary control. CZ notes that if large institutions use private chains, retail may be excluded, but decentralization does not mean forcing everyone onto Bitcoin.
Futures Market: Liquidity Matters Most
Perpetual futures launched in 2014 by BitMEX; Binance followed in 2019. Now CME offers crypto futures, which CZ welcomes as it increases overall liquidity and reduces crash risk. He predicts forex trading will eventually move on-chain.
Hyperliquid: A New Niche Market
CZ praises Hyperliquid's lean team for capturing a niche Binance cannot compete in (no KYC, claims decentralization). Founder Jeff was part of early Yzi Labs incubation; the project has technological innovation.
Prediction Markets: Polymarket and Others Have Huge Potential
Prediction markets (Polymarket, Kalshi) receive support from CFTC chair and US officials. They aid price discovery and liquidity. Hundreds of such projects may emerge; if executed responsibly, they will benefit the ecosystem.
BNB Chain Should Upgrade in Bear Market; L2 Will Eventually Return to L1
CZ advises all blockchain projects to upgrade during bear markets. BNB Chain is developing a faster, cheaper, more privacy-controlled version. He notes Vitalik realized L2 doesn't help L1; Ethereum's price decline forced a refocus on L1. While strong L2s exist, the future belongs to L1, with a possible L1-L2 cycle.
Yzi Portfolio: 70% Crypto, 20% AI, 10% Biotech – Impact Over Returns
Yzi Labs allocates roughly 70% crypto, 20% AI, and 10% biotech. CZ prioritizes impact even at a loss. Investments include an artificial womb (tested on rats, human application in 5–10 years) and knee cartilage regeneration (3D-printed scaffold implanted to stimulate growth), along with several AI robotics companies.
AI Usage: Multiple Models, Both US and China Have Strengths, but Caution Needed
CZ uses almost all major AI apps: OpenAI, Claude, Deepseek, Kimi. He finds US models more precise but sometimes unavailable in certain countries; Chinese models are good but less comprehensive. He warns that AI can hack computers, design nuclear weapons, and if mishandled, could destroy civilization – a risk far beyond crypto.
Crypto Will Not Die; AI, Blockchain, and Internet Will Build a New Financial System
Despite hot money flowing into AI, people use crypto to trade AI stocks, and AI contributes to crypto trading volume. Current payment systems are incompatible with AI (2FA, KYC), while blockchain is API-driven and AI-friendly. CZ believes AI, blockchain, and the internet will collaboratively build a better financial system; even if funds flow to AI, they will eventually settle on-chain.