Labor Day 2026 was the most expensive Labor Day at the pump in US history, according to Protos, with the national average gasoline price at $4.15 a gallon.
Donald Trump used the moment to repeat a promise he has been making for two years: gasoline below $2 a gallon. Protos said this latest version came with a new condition. Unlike his earlier remarks in 2024 and across much of the past two years, Trump tied the forecast to winning the war in Iran. In a Monday post, he wrote, 「Three Dollars a gallon, but ultimately, below Two Dollars a gallon,」 repeating a target the outlet said he has not achieved since 2024.
In the report’s account, US drivers are still paying more than $4 a gallon this week, topping even the 2012 Labor Day crisis level of $3.82. Protos said Trump has kept promising cheaper gasoline in campaign rallies, the State of the Union, and posts on Truth Social, while the numbers at the pump have moved the other way over the last two years.
How the $2-a-gallon pledge kept resurfacing
By late 2024, the $2 gasoline promise had already become a standard Trump campaign line. On August 19, 2024, he told rally attendees that gasoline would 「drop by more than 50% within the first 12 months」 of his presidency. Protos said that did not happen.
In September 2024, at the Economic Club of New York, Trump said gasoline would fall below $2 a gallon. He also said other household costs, from utility bills to groceries to housing, would follow. Protos said those expenses instead became more expensive.
Later that month, at a rally in Wilmington, North Carolina, he told voters, 「We will cut your energy prices in half. Mark it down, you can get very angry at me if we don’t do it, within 12 months, your energy prices will be cut in half.」 Gasoline averaged $3.29 a gallon in the first week of September. GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan gave Trump’s $2 pledge 「a zero percent chance.」
Claims in 2025 and 2026 versus the market data cited by Protos
In May 2025, Trump inaccurately said, 「Gasoline just broke $1.98 a Gallon, lowest in years.」 Fact-checkers cited by Protos said no state averaged below $2.60 at the time, while most US drivers were paying above $3.
In October 2025, Trump said, 「You’re gonna see $2 gasoline pretty soon.」
At his February 24, 2026 State of the Union address, Trump declared gasoline 「is now below $2.30 a gallon in most States and, in some places, $1.99 a gallon. And when I visited the great State of Iowa just a few weeks ago, I even saw $1.85 a gallon for gasoline.」 Protos said the real national average that week was near $3. It also said only eight of roughly 150,000 stations were selling gas below $2 a gallon.
Iran war messaging and rising prices
Four days later, the US joined Israel’s airstrikes on Iran, opening Operation Epic Fury. Protos said gasoline prices moved higher after that.
On March 10, 2026, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Americans 「will see oil and gas prices drop rapidly」 after the war. Trump Energy Secretary Chris Wright said there was a 「very good chance」 of sub-$3 gas by summer.
On March 30, Leavitt described higher gasoline prices as 「short-term price fluctuations.」 By April 15, the national average had reached $4.11 a gallon. That same day, Trump’s press secretary said, 「Look at how gas prices decreased over the past year since this president was in office.」
By May 7, the national average had climbed to $4.55. Trump said that day, 「Gas prices have come down today. Have you looked? They’ve come down very substantially today.」 Days later, he added that once the war in Iran ended, 「You’re going to see gasoline and oil drop like a rock.」
In a June 23 speech, Trump said, 「Oil is going to come charging down.」
Calls for DOJ action and later promises from Trump
On June 24, Trump posted that customers were being 「gouged」 at the pump and that criminal law enforcement officers at the Department of Justice should 「immediately start looking into this. Gasoline prices better start going down.」 He added, 「We should be, in my opinion, at $2.25 right now at the pump. But we’re higher than that.」 Protos said the actual average that day was $3.93.
On June 29, he said retailers should 「start targeting around the $2.50 a gallon number.」 Protos said they have not done so.
By July 1, Trump said prices would soon return to 「the record low prices Americans enjoyed at the pump」 before what he called the very successful 「excursion」 in Iran.
On August 4, in an interview with Fox News, Trump said gasoline costs were 「all coming down now,」 even though prices were still above $4 a gallon. Protos said this was the first time the national average stayed above $4 through the entire month of August. No previous August had averaged above the prior 2022 record of $3.97.
What Protos said about the Venezuela oil deal
Trump announced a Venezuela oil deal on August 28 and said in a post that it would 「substantially lower Gas Prices for all Americans, long into the future.」
Amy Myers Jaffe of New York University said the agreement was 「not going to do anything to change the price of gasoline at the retail station for Labor Day weekend.」 She said any benefit would belong to a more distant future.
At the time of publication, Protos said AAA’s national average still stood at $4.15 a gallon.