Ether demand this year has largely come from two buyers: spot exchange-traded funds and Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR), the company building an ether treasury. In October, both have pulled back at the same time.
In its latest Bits + Bips issue, Unchained said spot ether ETFs had recorded $1.2 billion in net outflows in October through Oct. 22, the worst month of 2026 for the products so far. Bitmine, meanwhile, remains about 66,000 ETH short of its goal of owning 5% of all ether. Based on the company’s latest holdings update, the publication said Bitmine would reach that target late next month if it keeps buying at its current pace.
The report said ether bulls often frame their outlook around adoption news, including JPMorgan bringing its deposit token to Ethereum this week. But network adoption only supports price if someone is actually buying the coin. The immediate question, it said, is who will absorb the roughly 20,000 new ETH issued each week once Bitmine stops.
ETF flows reversed sharply in October
Spot ether ETFs swung from strong inflows in August and September to heavy outflows in October. Net inflows reached $1.85 billion in August and another $832 million in September, then flipped to $1.2 billion in net outflows through Oct. 22, according to data cited from SoSoValue and Farside.
Investors pulled money on all but two trading days during that October stretch, Unchained wrote. The funds now hold about 6.2 million ETH, roughly in line with Bitmine’s holdings, backed by combined net assets of $14.6 billion.
The two buyer groups operate on very different scales. October’s ETF outflows have averaged about $357 million a week. Bitmine’s recent purchases, using the company’s own reported prices, amount to about $30 million a week. Unchained said the ETF swing is about 12 times larger.
Bitmine’s accumulation has slowed
Bitmine is nearing the end of its accumulation program at a much slower pace than when it started. The company has bought ether every week since June 30, 2025. In April and May, it bought more than 100,000 ETH in a single week four times. In each of the last two weeks, that figure was about 12,500 ETH.
Bitmine now holds 6.04 million ETH, equal to about 4.9% of Ethereum’s circulating token supply. Its cash balance has fallen by about $30 million a week, and the company has not raised new capital in its last three holdings updates.
Earlier this month, Bitmine Chair Tom Lee told investors, 「We’re done stacking」. Speaking at the Token2049 conference, Lee also said the company’s 5% ether target is a hard cap, adding, 「We’re not gonna be accumulating past 5%」.
The 5% target keeps moving
Timing is not entirely fixed because 5% of ether supply is a moving target. Unchained estimated that Ethereum’s supply grows by about 87,000 ETH a month, which pushes the finish line out by roughly 4,300 ETH each month.
The report also noted that Ethereum issuance is not fixed at roughly 20,000 new ETH per week. The network uses a fee-burning mechanism that adjusts with user demand. During periods of heavy use, such as in 2023, more ETH can be burned than created for validator rewards, turning Ethereum’s token economy deflationary.
Even so, ether inflation has remained relatively stable this year. Unchained said one reason is that user activity has shifted onto Layer-2 networks, leaving mainnet gas fees too low to burn enough of the newly issued coins.
Attention is shifting to the post-Bitmine market
The report said Bitmine has been absorbing part of Ethereum’s new supply, but that support is nearing its limit. Once the company stops buying, the market will need another source of demand to take in newly issued ETH.
Unchained said the rest of the subscriber-only issue examines how much of ether’s new supply Bitmine has been absorbing, why no other ether treasury can step in based on how their shares trade against their coin holdings, what is driving October’s ETF outflows, and the weekly ETF flow needed to cover new ETH issuance after Bitmine stops, along with bull, base, and bear ranges for ETH into year-end.
The article first appeared on Unchained.
