Whale Loss Status: All Cohorts in the Red
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost reported that Ethereum whales have collectively entered unrealized losses for the first time since 2019. During the 2022 bear market, whales holding over 100,000 ETH still maintained positive unrealized profits, but now all three major whale cohorts are underwater. Specifically, the unrealized profit ratio for whales holding 1,000 to 10,000 ETH is -0.26; for those holding 10,000 to 100,000 ETH it is -0.21; and for whales with over 100,000 ETH it is -0.05. This state has persisted for several weeks, indicating significant paper losses for large holders.
Historical Comparison and Bottom Signals
Darkfost noted that historically, when the ETH market tests whale conviction, a price bottom tends to form simultaneously. In 2022, the largest whales maintained positive positions even in the deep bear market, but the current broad-based loss may signal that the market is approaching a critical inflection point. Ethereum has demonstrated considerable resilience so far, with prices not collapsing despite whale losses, which strengthens the case for a bottom formation. Analysts view whale profitability as a key indicator of extreme market sentiment and potential reversals.
Market Outlook and Key Levels to Watch
The collective whale losses, combined with their persistence for weeks, suggest that selling pressure may have been partially absorbed. However, investors should be cautious about potential short-term volatility if whales are forced to liquidate positions at a loss. On the other hand, historical patterns indicate that after whale conviction is tested, the market often sees a recovery rally. In the coming weeks, traders should monitor whale position changes and on-chain data, as well as progress in the Ethereum ecosystem fundamentals. Overall, this rare signal deserves inclusion in professional risk analysis frameworks.