Steven Schoenfeld, CEO of Marketvector Indexes and a 36-year veteran of the investment management industry, shared his bullish outlook on spot bitcoin ETF approval during a panel at the Cdata Digital Asset Summit. Schoenfeld, who previously served as Managing Director and Head of International Equity Product Strategy at Barclays Global Investors (now Blackrock) overseeing over $70 billion in index funds and ETFs, predicted that the SEC would approve all pending spot bitcoin ETF applications simultaneously within three to six months.
SEC Shift and Grayscale Lawsuit
“Two weeks ago I would have said nine to 12 months away,” Schoenfeld noted. “But sitting here today I would say it’s closer to three to six months.” He cited two key factors: the SEC’s recent request for public comments on spot bitcoin ETF applications—a “marginal but significant improvement in the dialogue”—and the agency’s loss in the Grayscale lawsuit, which likely forces it to allow the conversion of GBTC into a spot ETF.
“The sheer size of the U.S. institutional market, financial advisor market, and self-directed retail investors is enormous,” Schoenfeld said. “Once a product becomes accessible to them, assets will move into these products.” He estimated that if the pattern seen after the launch of the gold ETF in 2004 repeats for bitcoin and ethereum, inflows could total between $150 billion and $200 billion over three years—three to four times the current size of listed bitcoin products.
Widespread Support and Inevitable Approval
Schoenfeld is not alone in his optimism. JPMorgan recently stated it expects the SEC to approve multiple spot bitcoin ETFs at once, while several U.S. lawmakers have urged the regulator to “immediately” greenlight these products. Analysts predict the first spot bitcoin ETF could be approved by mid-March next year, and former SEC Chair Jay Clayton called approval “inevitable” last month, emphasizing that institutional demand for bitcoin exposure is clear.
“It’s very likely that all will be approved,” Schoenfeld concluded. “The AUM potential could double or triple the current amount in existing bitcoin products.”