Crypto and macro headlines on Sept. 25-26 clustered around regulation, exchange security, tokenized assets, and the structure of the current Bitcoin rally.
Haseeb says AI safety will not solve itself
Dragonfly managing partner Haseeb wrote on X that humanity has faced many risks over time, including tiger attacks, the Black Death, smallpox, famine, earthquakes, and war. Those threats did not disappear on their own, he said; people reduced them through vaccines, sewer systems, alliances, and earth science research.
He argued that past success in handling other risks is not a reason to assume AI risk will fade away by itself. AI will not become safe on its own, he wrote, and humans have to solve the safety problem and retain control over AI. He added that society may soon hand over nearly all key control functions to AI, making it necessary to ensure humans still remain in control when that happens.
In a separate post, Haseeb said that if someone assigns a 10% probability to AI-driven human extinction, that still means they believe no severe outcome occurs in 90% of cases, yet humanity cannot know which case it is actually in. Until extinction risk can be confirmed as eliminated, he said, people should not knowingly take that risk.
Haseeb also said he used to be a professional gambler and that one of gambling’s core rules is to never touch “risk of ruin.” In his framing, that means always keeping enough reserves to rebuild and withstand the worst-case scenario. AI risk may be overstated, and it may even prove easy to solve, he said, but as long as a reasonable possibility remains, it should not be taken on without strong confirmation first.
Sources say the Fed is preparing higher thresholds for tougher bank oversight
Four people familiar with the matter said the Federal Reserve is drafting a plan to raise the asset thresholds that trigger stricter oversight for large banks. The move could spare some lenders from costly additional compliance burdens and may also encourage consolidation across the sector.
According to those sources, the Fed is expected to soon propose recalibrating the thresholds that determine when banks face balance-sheet stress tests, liquidity requirements, capital rules, and other tighter supervisory standards, with inflation and economic growth taken into account. Three of the four said the proposal is expected later this year.
Current rules become more demanding once a bank reaches $100 billion in assets, then tighten again at $250 billion and $700 billion. Lenders have said those thresholds, set in 2019, have not kept pace with economic growth and now subject banks to increasingly strict oversight that goes beyond the risks they actually pose.
HKEX clearing houses plan to accept Chinese bonds as non-cash collateral
Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing said Hong Kong Futures Exchange Clearing Corporation and The SEHK Options Clearing House, both wholly owned subsidiaries and exchange-traded derivatives clearing houses under HKEX, will from November 2026 accept certain bonds held through Bond Connect Northbound as eligible non-cash collateral for margin requirements, subject to regulatory approval.
The collateral set includes Chinese government bonds, policy bank financial bonds held through Bond Connect, and offshore bonds issued by the Ministry of Finance of the People’s Republic of China.
HKEX Chief Operating Officer Wilfred Yiu Bik-yan said the change would expand use cases for Chinese government bonds in Hong Kong. By accepting those bonds as collateral for clearing house margin obligations, HKEX expects to give market participants more flexible collateral management options, improve capital efficiency, and support continued development of Hong Kong’s fixed-income and RMB ecosystem.
Bitcoin consolidates near $84,000 as altcoin season index rises to 56
Market analysis cited in the digest said Bitcoin has been moving sideways around $84,000 while altcoins broadly strengthened. CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index rose to 56 over the past 24 hours, up from 45 a week ago and 38 a month ago, reaching its highest level in more than three months.
Bitcoin climbed from below $63,000 in August to nearly $87,000 by Tuesday this week, then entered a consolidation phase. Capital has started rotating into altcoins, with tokens including Chainlink (LINK), ICP, and Bittensor (TAO) posting gains.
Magic Eden details the scope of the Payment Processor V2 issue
Magic Eden said a recently disclosed vulnerability involves Payment Processor V2, an NFT trading protocol maintained by Limit Break that Magic Eden previously used for settlement in its 2024 EVM marketplace. The company said it stopped using Payment Processor V2 in October 2024 and fully shut down its EVM marketplace in the first quarter of 2026, so the bug did not affect any current active listings on Magic Eden.
Still, NFTs listed on Magic Eden’s EVM marketplace between February and October 2024 may be affected. Magic Eden said it is working with Limit Break to investigate and pursue mitigation steps, including pushing to pause asset transfers tied to the protocol.
The platform advised users who had listed or traded NFTs on its EVM marketplace to use Revoke.cash on Ethereum, Polygon, and Base, locate the Limit Break: Payment Processor (V2) contract, and revoke all NFT “Approve for All” permissions. It also warned that revoking approvals cannot recover assets that have already been moved, and thanked white hat security researcher 0xQuit for helping with the rescue effort and disclosure.
Later, Magic Eden co-founder and CEO Jack said on X that Magic Eden itself had not been hacked. He said the incident involved Limit Break’s trading protocol and smart contracts, which Magic Eden stopped using two years ago. The team is discussing further measures with Limit Break, including a protocol-level pause on asset transfers. Until then, users should follow official guidance and revoke the relevant approvals, he said. Jack also thanked 0xQuit and said more updates would follow.
Ethena adds tokenized U.S. equities and Binance stock perpetuals to USDe support strategy
Ethena is adding tokenized U.S. stocks and Binance stock perpetual contracts to the basis-trade support strategy behind USDe. Under the design, Binance bStocks will serve as the tokenized spot collateral leg, while Ethena hedges through Binance stock perpetuals to keep the position delta-neutral.
Ethena said its risk committee had already approved tokenized equity basis trades as part of the allocation framework. The company added that open interest in Binance stock perpetuals has now exceeded $2.9 billion, with a 105% monthly compounded growth rate this year. Over the past six months, stock basis trades have delivered an average annualized yield of 3.56%, according to Ethena.
It also said the opportunity set in stock perpetuals could eventually grow well beyond the crypto perpetuals market as more equity-market assets move on-chain. Ethena Labs founder Guy Young described the change as the most important expansion of USDe’s funding mechanism since launch.
Wallets linked to a Bitkub co-founder are said to have sold large amounts of ZEC
A group of wallets reportedly tied to Sakolkorn Sakavee, co-founder of Thailand’s largest crypto exchange Bitkub, has unshielded a total of 65,820 ZEC from private addresses over a recent period. The stash was valued at about $51.6 million, equal to around 0.4% of ZEC’s circulating supply and 1.37% of ZEC currently in shielded form.
Of that amount, 53,900 ZEC worth about $42.3 million has already been sold on Hyperliquid, and 536.7 BTC has been bought. Roughly 10,000 ZEC remains on Hyperliquid, while another 8,370 ZEC, worth $6.6 million, is listed for sale.
MLM said the wallets are still unshielding ZEC and selling through Hyperliquid. By its count, the address had previously sold a cumulative 139,600 ZEC for about $111 million. At current prices, that same amount would now be worth about $223 million, implying more than $110 million in forgone upside over the past four weeks.
Trader calls and platform security warnings
Trader Bonk Guy wrote in his personal channel that SOL is showing strong momentum and clearly outperforming other major crypto assets. He said USELESS has been the strongest beta asset in the Solana ecosystem over the past year and has continued to outperform other Solana meme coins by a wide margin. On that basis, he argued USELESS may have more upside if SOL keeps rising, adding that “it’s time to size in aggressively.”
Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua wrote on X that the market had rallied into an $86,000 resistance area and now faces a normal pullback phase, but that in a bull market he would stay bearish without actually shorting and wait patiently for the next long setup. He added that ETH looks stronger, trading infrastructure names such as UNI and HYPE are being recognized for their real demand, and ZEC is a strongly supported asset.
Bitget separately urged users to verify any Bitget-related account, message, or link before engaging with it, warning of fake official accounts and suspicious links claiming to be from the exchange. The company said users can check URLs through Bitget’s official verification page across X, Telegram, and its website.
Bitcoin is up 44% this quarter, but profit-taking remains below past cycle tops
Another market analysis said Bitcoin has gained 44% this quarter to nearly $85,000, making it the best quarter since the fourth quarter of 2024 after three straight quarterly declines. Some holders have started taking profits as the price climbed.
Bitfinex data shows BTC holders recently realized about $2.4 billion in profits in aggregate. At prior market tops, single-day realized profit has typically run between $7 billion and $10 billion, so the current scale remains well below those historical peak readings.
At the same time, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $2.84 billion in net inflows over the past six trading days, more than the profits realized by BTC holders over the same period. Net inflows for the year are now close to $800 million. Bitfinex also said about 410,000 ETH left exchanges over the past month, while U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs pulled in a combined $680 million over four straight trading days.
CoinDesk said major crypto assets including BTC and ETH have not shown clear weakness tied to Bitget’s roughly $452 million security incident, with recent fund inflows and the size of holder profit-taking among the factors in that resilience.
Treasury volatility climbs, but Bitcoin and equities stay comparatively calm
One analysis in the digest said volatility in the U.S. Treasury market has picked up sharply while Bitcoin and U.S. equities remain relatively calm. The MOVE Index, which tracks expected Treasury volatility, rose from about 80 on Tuesday to 104 on Thursday, the highest since March. Back then it had briefly reached 199.
By contrast, Volmex’s 30-day implied Bitcoin volatility index, BVIV, is around 37, close to its yearly low of 35. The Cboe VIX, a gauge of expected S&P 500 volatility, is also near its yearly low at 14. Meanwhile, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield briefly touched 5.2% on Thursday before easing back to 5.163%.
Data cited in the digest showed the 20-trading-day correlation between VIX and MOVE has fallen to -0.06, its first move below zero since April 2024. The correlation between BVIV and MOVE is -0.37, a relatively low level by recent-year standards. Because Treasuries sit at the center of the global financial and credit system, rising Treasury volatility usually points to tighter financial conditions, yet BTC and U.S. stocks have not mirrored that level of stress.
A separate analysis said the ICE BofA MOVE Index is up about 29.69% this week, the biggest increase since the so-called “Liberation Day” in April last year, when Trump’s sweeping import tariff measures shook global markets. The index is now at its highest level since March this year. Adam Kurpiel, head of U.S. rates strategy at Societe Generale, said his team currently holds a neutral stance on U.S. rates and is waiting to trade until volatility drops.
Goldman on AI infrastructure spending; Nscale closes financing
Goldman Sachs expects Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Oracle, and Meta to spend $800 billion on AI infrastructure this year. The bank also said hyperscale cloud providers need roughly $300 billion in annual AI revenue to break even, though higher financing needs and infrastructure constraints may slow future spending growth.
In the digest’s U.S. premarket roundup, Goldman also said America’s largest AI infrastructure companies will need around $300 billion in annual AI revenue over the next few years to earn back their capital outlays. It expects U.S. hyperscalers’ capital expenditures to reach about $800 billion in 2026, with the market widely expecting that figure to rise to $1.1 trillion in 2027.
AI cloud company Nscale said it has completed $3.36 billion in convertible note financing led by Third Point, with participation from Nvidia, funds managed by Apollo, Citadel, Hudson Bay Capital, and Abu Dhabi Investment Council, among others. The first $2.36 billion tranche has already closed. Nvidia separately committed another $1 billion, expected to be funded in mid-November 2026.
Nscale said its total contracted value now exceeds $103 billion. The new capital will be used to accelerate expansion of AI cloud infrastructure, including behind-the-meter power facilities, liquid-cooled AI data centers, and large-scale GPU clusters. The convertible notes will automatically convert into common shares after an IPO, and the portion held by Nvidia will convert into non-voting stock.
Premarket macro and geopolitical headlines
The premarket rundown said U.S. stock-index futures were modestly higher, with Dow futures up 0.28%, S&P 500 futures up 0.25%, and Nasdaq-100 futures up 0.39%.
In commodities, WTI crude futures fell 2.24% to $92.495 a barrel and Brent crude fell 2.03% to $98.186. Spot gold rose 0.60% to $4,299.36 an ounce, while spot silver added 1.21% to $64.60 an ounce.
European equity indexes also moved higher, with the FTSE 100 up 0.23%, France’s CAC 40 up 0.17%, Germany’s DAX 30 up 0.69%, and Italy’s FTSE MIB up 0.78%.
The same roundup said Microsoft released a new version of Copilot featuring Home, Code, and Autopilot. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on Sept. 24 reiterated that Iran “absolutely does not” want nuclear weapons and is willing to reduce uranium enrichment and accept inspections within an international legal framework. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Sept. 25 that a meeting involving Russia, the United States, and Ukraine could take place soon, though no details were available. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Sept. 24 during the UN General Assembly general debate that Iran had delivered a new negotiation draft to the United States and would “reopen” the Strait of Hormuz and restart talks.
Bitwise files for NEAR ETF; U.S. crypto tax reporting enters a new phase
A recent SEC filing shows Bitwise has applied to list a NEAR Protocol ETF on NYSE Arca under the ticker “NRR,” giving investors exposure to NEAR (NEAR).
On tax reporting, the Internal Revenue Service said brokers generally must report gross proceeds from digital-asset sales for 2025 transactions, but in most cases they do not yet have to report cost basis, leaving taxpayers to calculate gains and losses themselves. Beginning in 2026, brokers will have to report cost basis for eligible digital assets. The IRS also stressed that taxpayers must still report digital-asset income and gains or losses even if they do not receive a 1099-DA.
As the first filing season using the 1099-DA framework begins in the United States, some investors are dealing with missing transaction data and difficulty reconciling cost basis. In an August survey of 1,000 U.S. crypto investors by Awaken Tax, 21% of respondents who had filed or planned to request an extension said they were still waiting for needed information from exchanges or crypto platforms. Another roughly 20% said the information on their 1099-DA forms was incomplete or that they were unsure whether it accurately reflected their trading activity.
Coinbase, Aave, and the next step for stablecoins and tokenized stocks
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said the number of AI agents will keep growing, and with it the number of agents that need to make payments and conduct transactions. In his view, crypto and stablecoins will become the preferred payment rails for those autonomous agents. BlackRock has previously said AI agents could become a major source of stablecoin demand.
Aave V4 has launched Equities Hub on Base, allowing eligible non-U.S. users to post seven U.S. stock tokens issued by Coinbase as collateral to borrow USDC. The initial names are Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla. That makes tokenized equities usable as collateral inside Aave’s lending market for the first time, rather than only as assets to hold or trade.
The market uses Aave’s Hub and Spoke architecture, placing all seven equity collateral types into one USDC liquidity pool while setting distinct risk parameters for each stock and isolating idiosyncratic risk. Chainlink will provide on-chain pricing for the tokenized stocks. The market launches with an aggregate collateral cap of about $29 million, a USDC supply cap of $32 million, and a borrow cap of $21 million. Loan-to-value ratios range from 65% to 79% depending on the stock. Aave said the seven names are currently collateral-only assets, though more Coinbase tokenized stocks and GHO could be added later if governance and risk review approve them.
Coinbase also submitted written comments on proposed Treasury and IRS rules for qualified investments under Trump Accounts. The company argued that long-term investment options should include eligible digital-asset products within regulatory guardrails, while maintaining transparency, risk limits, and low fees. President and COO Emilie Choi said Coinbase was among the first supporters of the Trump Accounts program. Chief Policy Officer Faryar Shirzad said the company urged the IRS to allow beneficiaries to invest in broadly traded digital assets or gain digital-asset exposure through funds. Under the earlier IRS proposal, qualified growth-stage investments were largely limited to mutual funds or ETFs tracking broad U.S. equity indexes, with no leverage and annual fees capped at 0.1%.
Bitget launches recovery bounty and revises stolen-funds figure to $387.5 million
Bitget said it has launched a recovery bounty program to mobilize exchanges, blockchain projects, security researchers, investigators, and on-chain communities to help freeze and recover affected assets. Eligible participants who directly help freeze funds can receive rewards equal to 5% of the amount frozen, and the same 5% rate applies to funds successfully recovered.
The exchange said it is using Bybit’s Lazarus Bounty program as a core reporting channel to support the recovery work. Actions taken through court orders, law-enforcement requests, or other legal procedures are not eligible for rewards, and Bitget will make the final determination on eligibility, attribution, and payout size.
It has also opened real-time fund-tracing data to blockchain projects, security teams, and other relevant parties, and launched a live tracing dashboard plus an attacker-address API. The exchange said both tools will be updated continuously as stolen funds move and as new linked addresses are identified. It also encouraged exchanges, stablecoin issuers, bridges, blockchain projects, custodians, and other infrastructure providers to monitor relevant addresses and submit freeze or recovery information through its portal.
Bitget CEO Gray Chen said on X that on-chain tracing after the Sept. 24 UTC incident showed attacker addresses received $387.5 million in assets, up from the previously disclosed $351.6 million. He said the revised total includes Zcash and TRON assets that were not fully counted earlier, rather than any new unauthorized transfers, and added that no unauthorized transfers have occurred since the event. The situation remains under control, he said.
Gray Chen added that the exchange is working to restore withdrawals and will publish a withdrawal plan before 04:00 UTC on Sept. 26.
Binance co-founder CZ wrote on X, “It’s a hard day for Bitget. I expect and know Binance, the BNB Chain ecosystem, and the community will do what they can to help.” He also added, “Stay SAFU.”
Tether comments on EQIBank asset seizure
Tether said its exposure to EQIBank, a Dominican-licensed bank whose assets were seized by U.S. authorities, is less than 0.034% of the group’s total assets. Based on Tether’s previously disclosed group total assets of $187.75 billion in June, that would imply a ceiling of about $64 million in exposure. Tether did not disclose the exact figure and said it had not known about the conduct involving U.S. payment processor Capstone that the Department of Justice later alleged.
EQIBank said about $89 million of its assets were seized by U.S. prosecutors, equal to roughly 80% of its monetary assets, and that it could face liquidation. The bank had previously provided services to Tether, including wire transfers connected to USDT purchases and redemptions. The digest said the episode does not currently indicate a direct threat to USDT reserves or its dollar peg, but it does highlight counterparty risk for stablecoin issuers that rely on banks and fiat rails.
Hack VC autopsy ruling, OpenAI service reset, and Ethereum node sync progress
Autopsy records from the San Bernardino County Coroner’s Office show former Hack VC partner Hsin-Ju Chuang died on Aug. 24 and that the manner of death was ruled a suicide. The California Highway Patrol said the investigation remains ongoing. PANews had previously reported that the 37-year-old was found dead in a vehicle near Interstate 15 in the Mojave Desert on the night of Aug. 24 local time, when the cause of death had not yet been determined.
Tibo, product lead for OpenAI Codex, said in a post that usage limits for paid Codex and ChatGPT users were fully reset after a brief outage. The team has restored services and reset caps for all paid users to compensate for the inference-service disruption. It also activated a backup Codex system to provide emergency support if the main service fails.
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin said on X that Ethereum nodes can now complete syncing within half a day, and that with more aggressive configuration the disk footprint can be kept below 0.5 TB. He said EIP-4444 and continued Snap Sync optimizations by client teams have significantly improved the node-running experience, and that the Glamsterdam upgrade will increase sync efficiency further.
Buterin said users can point wallet RPCs to local nodes if the nodes’ RPC settings are configured properly. Some browser-based dApps may not use local RPCs effectively, while others hard-code their own servers. He said he is increasingly inclined to avoid browser dApps and use the command line instead, and that he already updated ENS records through a Python script connected to a local node. He added that kohaku-cli will next integrate privacy protocols more deeply and that early development work is already underway.
SEC staff FAQ addresses functional networks, staking receipts, and buybacks
According to a Sept. 25 crypto-asset FAQ from the SEC’s Division of Corporation Finance, once a crypto system has reached a “functional” state, services that maintain security, improve or enhance features, or foster network effects, including funding or sponsoring development work, generally do not amount to the “essential managerial efforts” referenced under the Howey test. Commitments to provide those services generally would not satisfy that Howey element on their own.
The FAQ also said a staking receipt token may be viewed as a “digital instrument” if it merely evidences ownership of the underlying digital commodity and does not alter the holder’s rights, obligations, or returns. When issued by protocol-based liquid staking providers, it may also be treated as a “digital commodity.” The FAQ added that buyback plans involving non-security crypto assets on functional networks typically do not constitute essential managerial efforts, though a buyback promoted as creating profit for holders before a network is functional could be viewed differently. The SEC said the FAQ reflects staff views only, carries no legal force, and has not been approved or disapproved by the Commission.
America.gov launch, AlphaFi shutdown, and long-term Bitcoin holding data
U.S. President Donald Trump is set to launch the new government website America.gov next Tuesday alongside technology and AI leaders, consolidating public services and information previously spread across federal agencies. The White House said the launch will be paired with a full day of sessions covering AI, energy, healthcare, space, and agriculture. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, Tesla CEO Elon Musk, and Anthropic co-founder Tom Brown are expected to attend, alongside Vice President JD Vance and several officials. Joe Gebbia, Airbnb co-founder and current head of the national design studio, said new AI tools will help people access government support more easily. Trump also said his administration will not slow AI development in competition with China.
The website currently shows a countdown of about 3 days and 13 hours remaining. The official launch time converts to around 22:00 Beijing time next Tuesday, Sept. 29.
On-chain DeFi protocol AlphaFi on Sui said it will shut down in an orderly way and has already entered maintenance mode. Withdrawals remain open, but the protocol is no longer accepting new deposits or loans. AlphaFi said some AlphaLend borrowing positions backed by ALPHA became severely undercollateralized, leaving the protocol with bad debt. After the issue was identified by the Sui Foundation security team and handled jointly with the project, the bad debt has now been fully covered. The protocol remains solvent and user funds are safe, AlphaFi said.
As part of the shutdown process, users are expected to close positions and withdraw assets. Slush Strategies users can now withdraw directly from Slush Wallet, the WAL vault lock-up has been removed, and withdrawals from SUI, WAL, DEEP, and USDC strategies are now instant. The ALPHA vault has also been stopped and its lock-up removed. AlphaFi said it will exit the Sui ecosystem after the last user has withdrawn and will continue to work with the Sui Foundation on investigation, remediation, and recovery.
Separate data in the digest showed that 81% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply has not moved for more than six months, a sign that holders remain reluctant to sell and that long-term holding behavior has strengthened.