The Federal Reserve left the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% at its July Federal Open Market Committee meeting, with the decision passing on a 9-3 vote. Chair Warsh said the central bank would not compromise on its 2% inflation target and added that AI-related high-tech investment remains an important pillar for steady economic expansion.
Three committee members explicitly backed a 25 basis point rate increase. That was the first time since 2016 that three policymakers cast dissenting votes in the same direction. Markets took the meeting as a hawkish pause.
September hike odds eased after the meeting
Following the decision, CME FedWatch showed the probability of a September rate hike slipping to about 65% from nearly 80%. Bitcoin and other major crypto assets posted modest gains after the announcement, and market sentiment shifted from a cautious wait-and-see stance before the meeting to a mildly warmer tone.
According to New Huo Research Institute, energy prices remain the biggest source of uncertainty. The institute said the continuing U.S.-Iran conflict and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are pushing oil prices higher. If the conflict continues, inflation pressure could be transmitted back into the interest-rate outlook, making it a central risk for markets in the second half of the year.
New Huo says institutional funding demand is picking up
Front-line trading data suggests institutions are becoming more willing to move capital into the market. New Huo Group said its over-the-counter, or OTC, trading business posted another all-time high in total July volume, up 257% from June.
Broken down by week, every week in July recorded a clear increase from the corresponding week in June. Volume in the week around the FOMC meeting was up about 79% from the same week a month earlier.
Energy and the Fed path remain key variables
Looking ahead, New Huo Research Institute said energy prices and the Federal Reserve's next policy moves remain the main variables to watch.
The institute also pointed to activity on Robinhood Chain. After going live recently, the chain quickly drew on-chain trading and tokenized asset activity. Its total value locked, or TVL, has risen to about $325 million, while average daily decentralized exchange trading volume stands at about $553 million. In New Huo's view, that shows real user demand has not disappeared under macro pressure.
Over a longer horizon, the institute said the industry will continue to attract capital through scarcity and network effects, while investors should pay closer attention to real-world demand and the progress of institutional allocation.