The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% on July 30, extending its run of no-change decisions to five meetings. The Federal Open Market Committee approved the move by a 9-3 vote, while three regional Fed presidents dissented in favor of a rate increase. The report said it was the first time since 2016 that three dissents all supported a hike.
Warsh says the 2% inflation target has not changed
At the press conference, Federal Reserve Chair Warsh said the Fed does not have a “soft inflation target” and that its only target has remained 2% inflation throughout. If inflation stays high, he said, the central bank would not hesitate to act when necessary and appropriate.
Warsh also said he would not describe the latest decision as a “pause.” In his words, the choice not to act at this stage is the beginning of the policy process, not the end. He added that market pricing is something the Fed observes, but it does not set policy on that basis.
Assessment of the economy and the split vote
Warsh said U.S. economic activity remains solid, with productivity, capital spending and AI investment all staying strong. He also said the labor market remains firm and that the Fed has done “quite well” on full employment, while officials continue to make a strict assessment of economic conditions.
Addressing the dissenting votes, he said the committee had full internal discussion, but the final decision still won support from an overwhelming majority of members.
Market moves after the decision
During the policy release and the press conference, spot gold rose by more than $50 at one point and moved above $4,100. The U.S. dollar index fell below 101. In Treasuries, the 2-year yield declined by about 8 basis points, while the 30-year yield rose by about 10 basis points.
Rate markets trimmed overall pricing for additional tightening later this year, though they still priced in about 15 basis points of expectations for a September hike. Trump later said that Warsh wanted rate cuts, but that the Federal Reserve has a “political board.”

