U.S. and Canadian markets are closed on Sept. 7 for Labor Day, pausing equity trading and shortening trading hours for gold, silver and oil. Even so, the tone for the week was set before the holiday, when a stronger U.S. jobs report revived rate hike expectations and put pressure on large-cap technology shares.
The U.S. added 162,000 nonfarm jobs in August, far above the market expectation of 55,000, while the unemployment rate held at 4.1%. That pushed market pricing for a September Federal Reserve rate hike from about 49% to 58%. On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.51%, the S&P 500 lost 0.38%, and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.29%.
This week turns on inflation data before the Fed meeting
The main question for markets now is whether higher oil prices have started to feed into broader cost pressures across the economy. Traders are looking to Thursday’s producer price index and Friday’s consumer price index for that answer. Both reports arrive just before the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting.
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller has already laid out a rough threshold. If core CPI rises no more than 0.2% month over month, he would lean against a hike. If the figure comes in at 0.3% or higher, a hike would be considered.
Bank of America and Citigroup are working with sharply different scenarios. Bank of America expects core CPI to rise 0.22% month over month and sees that as enough to support a September hike. Citigroup expects 0.184% and says most officials may choose to leave rates unchanged.
Middle East tensions and unchanged OPEC+ output lift oil
Tensions in the Middle East escalated again over the weekend. The U.S. said it struck three Iranian oil tankers, while Iran threatened to set up a "restricted zone" near the Strait of Hormuz. OPEC+ then left October output unchanged on Sunday, offering no additional supply buffer.
Oil futures opened higher in early trading. Brent crude climbed to around $93, while WTI crude rose about 0.99% to around $92.4. Morgan Stanley raised its fourth-quarter target to $100.
Donald Trump remained another market variable. He posted a stream of images on social media tied to Iran, the Space Force and Intel earnings, and wrote, "I am doing this for the country, not for myself." At the same time, the U.S. side kept saying it would "strangle" Iran’s economy. The report said higher energy prices have already started to hurt his approval ratings and the Republican midterm election outlook.
Treasury yields stay elevated, the dollar holds firm, gold sees a short-term shakeout
The bond market is already under strain. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is hovering near 4.79%, close to the 5% level that many investors see as a clear valuation headwind for equities.
The U.S. Treasury will also launch an expanded buyback plan this week, effective Sept. 9, with the stated aim of improving liquidity in the long end of the market. At 1:00 a.m. on Sept. 10, the Treasury will auction 10-year notes. The previous auction cleared at 4.68 with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.53. Demand this time will show whether global investors are willing to step in at current yield levels.
The U.S. dollar index is consolidating near 99. Gold came under short-term pressure and briefly fell below $4,400 an ounce, though Middle East risks and central bank buying are still providing support. Three major banks remain positive on the metal:
- Citigroup has a 0-3 month target of $4,800 an ounce and a 6-12 month target of $5,000.
- Goldman Sachs said the gold bull market is only an "extended pause" and sees sovereign and institutional support around $4,000 an ounce.
- UBS said U.S. fiscal risk and "fiscal dominance" are turning gold into a long-term allocation asset.
Silver is also entering a new trading phase. CME will extend 100-ounce silver futures to 24-hour trading on Sept. 11. After round-the-clock trading was introduced for 1-ounce gold futures, this change is set to deepen liquidity in weekend and Asian trading hours for precious metals.
AI hardware names outperform while most megacaps pull back
Although the three major U.S. indexes closed lower, trading was not uniformly bearish. Apple, Microsoft and Tesla weighed on the market, while memory, optical communication and semiconductor equipment names stood out on the upside.
Goldman Sachs Asia-Pacific chief equity strategist Timothy Moe kept his bullish call on South Korea, maintaining a Kospi target of 12,000, which implies nearly 80% upside from current levels. He said the market is underestimating how long AI can keep lifting earnings for memory-chip manufacturers, and he expects U.S. technology giants to spend more than $1.2 trillion in capital expenditures next year.
Nvidia remained at the center of the AI supply chain. Jensen Huang publicly praised OpenAI GPT-6 Astra, saying it was trained on more than 100,000 Nvidia Grace Blackwell NVLink72 chips, and added that "AGI has arrived." Goldman Sachs’ Delta One desk also said Astra may represent the capability breakthrough that AI bulls have been waiting for.
Still, the AI trade is not free of risk. Bank of America chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett warned that if Democrats sweep both chambers in the midterm elections, U.S. equities could fall more than 10%, the dollar could weaken and bond yields could decline, while the AI bubble would also face the risk of breaking. In his view, the global surge in bond yields is already the biggest threat to the AI capital spending boom.
Company moves and stock performance
Micron Technology rose 6.10%
The move was driven by expectations for higher HBM output. The company plans to lift monthly HBM capacity to about 100,000 wafers by year-end, nearly double last year’s level, and accelerate mass production of 12-layer HBM4 products designed for Nvidia’s Vera Rubin architecture.
Memory names were mostly higher. Sandisk rose 11.9%, SK Hynix gained more than 8%, Western Digital climbed more than 5%, while Seagate Technology fell more than 6%.
Nvidia gained 0.84%
Huang said GPT-6 Astra was trained on more than 100,000 Grace Blackwell NVLink72 chips and declared that AGI has arrived. Traders were also watching the reported $12.9 billion acquisition of open-source AI platform Hugging Face. In their view, Nvidia is moving beyond being a chip supplier and becoming a hidden price setter in the AI developer ecosystem.
Semiconductor equipment and materials names advanced
Aehr Test Systems rose 13.1%, Cohu gained 10.31%, KLA added 7.32%, Entegris climbed 6.15%, Lam Research rose 5.12%, and ASML advanced 4.17%.
Tesla fell 5.92%
The Cybercab event disappointed the market. It was not livestreamed, and Elon Musk did not appear. More importantly, the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration began reviewing whether about 1,000 Cybercab vehicles meet safety standards, adding a regulatory overhang.
Apple dropped 2.51%
Investors moved ahead of the launch event by focusing on cost and pricing pressure. Apple is set to unveil its first foldable iPhone and the iPhone 18 Pro lineup early on Sept. 10. Morgan Stanley called it Apple’s most important launch event in nearly a decade, while also estimating the Pro models could be priced $200 to $500 higher and the foldable iPhone could start at $2,399.
Related names also moved. Xiaomi-W was last down 3.94%. Huawei Mate XT 2 and Xiaomi 18 Fold are scheduled to launch in the same week, putting foldables, memory, panels and precision manufacturing supply chains into an event-driven window.
Lululemon fell 17.38%
Second-quarter revenue declined 4% year over year, comparable sales fell 9%, North America dropped 12%, sales of its core yoga pants plunged 20%, and the company cut its full-year revenue guidance for a second straight quarter.
Other large-cap names
- Microsoft fell 2.04%: Morgan Stanley said Microsoft’s new business disclosure structure will not change fundamentals, but it will reduce visibility into margins for some units. Microsoft and OpenAI were also sued by U.S. newspapers over AI training data.
- Google fell 1.11%: the company launched the more advanced global weather forecasting model WeatherNext 3.
- Meta Platforms rose 1%: the company is offering steep discounts to attract customers to its AI models while continuing to strengthen agent and coding capabilities.
- Amazon fell 0.15%: a Prime Air cargo aircraft was involved in an accident in Miami, and the FAA has opened an investigation.
- SpaceX fell 1.2%: under pressure from the White House, SpaceX, Blue Origin, Stoke Space and Starcloud canceled plans to attend the Paris Space Summit.
Key events to watch this week
Sept. 7, Monday
- U.S. and Canadian stock markets closed for Labor Day: U.S. markets are shut for one day, while trading in gold, silver and oil ends early. The report said low liquidity could amplify moves tied to Middle East developments, oil gaps and dollar swings, leaving Asian and European sessions to do more of the week’s price discovery.
- Huawei Mate XT 2 at 14:30, Xiaomi 18 Fold event at 19:00: Huawei’s new tri-fold flagship will debut HarmonyOS 7, while Xiaomi 18 Fold will use the Xuanjie O3 AI flagship processor.
- Expanded Stock Connect coverage takes effect in Hong Kong: Baidu Group-W and Manycore Tech are among the names newly added to the program.
Sept. 8, Tuesday
- 00:00 Canadian retaliatory tariffs on about $20 billion of U.S. goods take effect: renewed trade friction is set to increase cost uncertainty across North American supply chains.
- 09:20 Longsys to list in Hong Kong: the company plans to raise no more than HK$6.28 billion, and the H-share offer price comes at a sizeable discount to the A-share price.
- 23:00 New York Fed one-year inflation expectations for August: a higher reading would make it harder for the Fed to pause, while a lower reading could ease pressure on Treasury yields and the dollar.
Sept. 9, Wednesday
- 00:00 Expanded U.S. Treasury buyback plan takes effect: the maximum size of each buyback will at least double to more than $4 billion and run through Nov. 4, with the aim of improving liquidity in long-dated Treasuries.
- 01:00 $58 billion 3-year Treasury auction: the first key test in a three-day supply window.
- Sept. 9-10 Republican midterm election conference in the U.S.: markets will watch Trump and the party’s positions on tariffs, fiscal policy, immigration and energy.
- Sept. 9-10 Paris Space Summit: Blue Origin, SpaceX, StokeSpace and Starcloud are reportedly set to be absent.
- Sept. 9-10 11th Belt and Road Summit: the event will be held at the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre, with John Lee attending.
- Youdi Robotics to list in Hong Kong: demand for new robot listings may affect sentiment around robotics, automation and AI hardware.
Sept. 10, Thursday
- 01:00 Apple fall product event: Apple is expected to unveil its first foldable iPhone, iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max. It will also be the first major product test for new CEO John Ternus.
- 01:00 $39 billion 10-year Treasury auction: with the 10-year yield near 4.78%, bid-to-cover, indirect bidding and tail metrics will be closely watched.
- 20:15 European Central Bank rate decision; 20:45 Christine Lagarde press conference: focus is on energy inflation, wage pressure and policy guidance for December.
- 20:30 U.S. August PPI: the market expects monthly PPI at 0.4% and annual PPI around 5.2%-5.3%.
- OPEC monthly oil market report: the report will update supply, demand, inventories and compliance with OPEC+ production targets.
Sept. 11, Friday
- Oracle and Adobe earnings after the close: Oracle will be watched for cloud infrastructure orders, AI data center contract conversion and capital spending. Adobe will be watched for whether Firefly and other generative AI products can drive subscription growth and higher revenue per user.
- 01:00 $22 billion 30-year Treasury auction: the final sale in the three-day Treasury supply wave and the hardest test of long-term investor confidence.
- CME extends 100-ounce silver futures to 24-hour trading: longer hours could deepen liquidity in Asia and on weekends.
- Sept. 11-13 China Computing Power Conference 2026 opens in Langfang: the conference will focus on computing infrastructure and AI buildout.
- 20:30 U.S. August CPI and core CPI: this is the last major inflation release before the Fed’s Sept. 15-16 meeting. The market expects headline CPI up 0.4% month over month and 3.4% year over year, with core CPI up 0.2% month over month and 2.5% year over year. If core CPI stays at 0.2% or lower, the odds of a hold in September would rise. If it reaches 0.3% or more, markets are likely to reprice hike risk.
Sept. 12, Saturday
- Elon Musk says the Grok 4.7 release window opens: markets are watching the potential step-up in capabilities, inference cost and pricing strategy for the 2.1 trillion-parameter model.
- 18th BRICS leaders’ meeting: investors are focused on emerging-market cooperation, energy settlement, trade arrangements and de-dollarization topics.