Markets Look to Fed Minutes, PMI Data and Hormuz Shipping as Risk Appetite Rebounds

News Editor

2026-08-16 12:17:56

Global risk appetite improved over the past week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both reaching fresh recent highs as trading shifted away from defensive positioning and back toward rate-cut expectations and AI earnings delivery. Technology and chip stocks led the move, while South Korea’s KOSPI jumped 11.5% for the week, ending a seven-week losing streak and returning to technical bull market territory. The U.S. dollar index was nearly flat on the week, though softer inflation data lowered expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes and an unexpected decline in Friday retail sales accelerated the dollar’s drop. For the coming week, markets are focused on three variables. The first is whether shipping through the Strait of Hormuz can make real progress, as Iran and Oman are working to align on shipping routes and a navigation map, even as the U.S. remains outside the talks and keeps a hard line. The second is the Federal Reserve’s July meeting minutes, due early Thursday Beijing time, with attention on whether more policymakers favored hikes and how officials viewed the spread of energy and tariff pressures into services prices. The third is Friday’s preliminary U.S. and European PMI data, which could reinforce expectations that the Fed stays on hold in September if the readings weaken.

Global risk appetite improved over the past week, according to BlockBeats on Aug. 16.

In U.S. equities, both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq climbed to fresh recent highs. Trading focus shifted from defensive, safe-haven positioning back to rate-cut expectations and the delivery of AI-related earnings, with technology and semiconductor shares leading the advance. In South Korea, the KOSPI rose 11.5% on the week, snapping a seven-week losing streak and returning to technical bull market territory.

The U.S. dollar index was nearly flat for the week. Improving inflation data lowered expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate hikes, while an unexpected contraction in Friday retail sales accelerated the dollar’s decline.

Three variables are in focus for the week ahead

Whether the Strait of Hormuz sees a real breakthrough

The first variable is whether shipping through the Strait of Hormuz can make tangible progress. Iran and Oman are working to reach agreement on shipping routes and plan to finalize a shipping map, but the United States is not involved in the negotiations and has maintained a hard-line stance. Actual shipping volume remains very low.

If a joint statement is released, the U.S. signals a lifting of the blockade, and shipping volume continues to improve, the geopolitical premium in oil prices could ease and broader risk appetite could recover.

Fed July minutes due early Thursday Beijing time

The second focus is the Federal Reserve’s July monetary policy meeting minutes, scheduled for release early Thursday Beijing time. Markets will watch whether, beyond the officials who publicly opposed the consensus, more members leaned toward further rate hikes, and how policymakers assessed whether energy and tariff shocks were spreading into services prices.

Preliminary U.S. and European PMI readings arrive Friday

The third key variable is Friday’s batch of preliminary PMI readings from the U.S. and Europe. If those data weaken, they could further cement expectations that the Fed will leave rates unchanged in September.

Key events next week

Tuesday 20:15, U.S. weekly change in ADP employment for the week ending Aug. 1
Wednesday 02:00, Federal Reserve releases minutes from its July monetary policy meeting
Wednesday 20:30, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug. 15; U.S. August Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index
Friday 07:30, Japan July core CPI year-over-year
Friday 21:45, U.S. August S&P Global manufacturing PMI flash; U.S. August S&P Global services PMI flash

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