CME FedWatch data shows the probability that the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points at its September 16 FOMC meeting has climbed to 57%, which would take the target range to 3.75%-4%. The odds of holding the current 3.5%-3.75% band stand at 43%. The shift followed the August 28 Jackson Hole speech: the implied probability of a hike stood at 39.9% on August 21 and rose to 57% afterward, all but extinguishing bets on a September rate cut. Prediction markets are pricing similar outcomes. Polymarket shows a 52% probability of rates staying unchanged versus 48% for a hike, with trading volume above $66.6 million. Kalshi data point to the same 52%/48% split, on volume exceeding $23.8 million. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said in his Jackson Hole remarks that the Fed remains committed to its 2% personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation target, describing the commitment as one of discipline rather than specific decisions. The latest readings show 12-month PCE inflation at 3.7% and the six-month figure at 4.1%.
The CME FedWatch tool now assigns a 57% probability to a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting, according to Bitcoin.com News. A hike would lift the target range to 3.75%-4% from the current 3.5%-3.75%; the odds of holding the existing range are 43%.
Expectations have moved quickly. On August 21, the implied probability of a September hike stood at 39.9%. After the August 28 Jackson Hole speech, it rose to 57%, and bets on a September rate cut have essentially vanished.
Prediction markets are pricing a similar split. Polymarket data show a 52% probability that the federal funds rate stays unchanged versus 48% for a hike, with trading volume exceeding $66.6 million. Kalshi data point to the same 52%/48% breakdown, on volume of more than $23.8 million.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, speaking at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, said the Fed will stick to its 2% personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index inflation target, describing the commitment as one of discipline rather than specific decisions. Data show 12-month PCE inflation at 3.7%, while the six-month reading is 4.1%.
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