Data from multiple prediction platforms suggests the Federal Reserve will likely hold interest rates steady when it concludes its September 15-16 meeting. On Polymarket, the contract betting on no change carries a 63% probability, and trading volume on the relevant market has exceeded $20.3 million. Kalshi shows a 65% probability for a hold, with volume close to $4.9 million. CME FedWatch indicates a 55.6% chance that the federal funds rate target range remains at 3.50% to 3.75% on September 16, while a 25-basis-point increase is priced at 44.4%. On July 31, FedWatch had shown a 67% chance of a hike. The shift in expectations comes alongside U.S. employment data showing that nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, with the unemployment rate at 4.1%. The Fed left rates unchanged after its July 28-29 meeting, with the next decision due September 16.
Prediction market data has converged on a single outcome for the Federal Reserve's September meeting: no change to interest rates.
On Polymarket, the probability of the Fed holding rates steady stands at 63%, with trading volume on the relevant market surpassing $20.3 million. Kalshi puts the chance at 65%, with volume near $4.9 million.
CME's FedWatch tool, which measures futures market expectations, shows a 55.6% probability that the federal funds rate target range stays at 3.50% to 3.75% on September 16. A 25-basis-point hike carries a 44.4% probability. That marks a clear retreat from July 31, when FedWatch indicated a 67% chance of a hike.
The recent repricing comes as U.S. employment data showed job losses in July. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on August 7 that nonfarm payrolls decreased by 23,000 in July, while the unemployment rate stood at 4.1%.
The Federal Reserve held rates steady at its July 28-29 meeting. The next policy announcement is due after the September 15-16 gathering.
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