Markets price in a Fed hold as FX traders watch the tone of the statement

Markets are assigning a 90% probability that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged, according to a ChainCatcher newsflash. The report points to the Fed decision as a closely watched policy event, with attention centered less on the rate outcome itself and more on how officials frame their message. Analysts at Monex Europe said the foreign exchange market’s reaction will depend on the tone of the Federal Reserve’s statement. In their view, the central bank may keep open the possibility of a rate hike in December, while stopping short of offering formal guidance. That leaves the wording of the statement as the key variable for traders assessing the next move in currencies and broader risk assets. The report does not mention any change in the market’s base case, which remains a pause at the upcoming meeting.