Crypto markets have come under pressure as investors focus on the possibility of Warsh becoming the next Federal Reserve chair. The concern is straightforward: a chair seen as hawkish may resist a looser policy stance even if rates move lower. Still, the material makes clear that the Fed chair cannot cut rates alone and would need support from at least half of the board members.
The next two meetings are expected to stay on hold
According to the source material, the Federal Reserve is not expected to lower rates at its next two meetings. Even by the June meeting, described as the third meeting, a cut would be hard to push through on a unilateral basis if Warsh were already in place. That becomes even less likely if labor data stays firm and inflation remains away from the 2% target. A cut under those conditions could raise questions about Fed independence and affect how global markets read the policy signal.
Views inside the Fed are not aligned. Bostic, who was not openly against cuts last year, is now described as leaning more hawkish. Goolsbee and Cook have also expressed skepticism toward rate reductions, while Schmid is known for opposing last year’s cuts. The mix points to a difficult policy debate rather than a single dominant view.
Committee turnover may reshape the 2026 balance
The article notes that Bostic currently serves in an advisory capacity and does not hold a vote in FOMC decisions. New participants such as Logan and Hammack are set to influence 2026 decisions as they replace veteran figures. That shift in committee composition could alter the odds for rate cuts, which is why Fed watchers are paying close attention to any leadership transition involving Warsh and Powell.
Schmid and Goolsbee are said to have opposed December’s rate decision, and both are seen as hawkish. Their lack of voting rights this year could leave room for more dovish outcomes if their replacements are more supportive of cuts. Waller is presented as backing reductions and arguing that high rates can restrain economic growth. Paulson, a newer entrant to the Fed, is also described as more dovish. Logan, by contrast, favors stopping further rate reductions and keeping the focus on inflation control.
Any major move would still require six additional votes
With a maximum of 12 voting members, Warsh would need to persuade at least six others to support a major decision, especially a rate cut. That leaves incoming employment and inflation figures at the center of the debate, since those numbers could influence members who have not taken a firm side.
Based on the material, a clearer case for easing would require either weaker labor conditions or lower inflation. The expectation cited in the article is for two rate cuts in 2026, with the first one possibly beginning at the June meeting.