Chris Kuiper, vice president of research at Fidelity Digital Assets, said the Bitcoin bear market may not be over yet, warning that the rebound seen since August does not by itself confirm a lasting trend reversal. In his view, the move higher could mark the start of a new uptrend, but it could also be a bear market rally. Kuiper said price appreciation alone is not enough to declare that the bear market has ended.
He pointed to November as an important window under the four-year cycle framework, noting that the previous bear market bottom was recorded in November 2022. At the same time, he stressed that historical cycles have never repeated with precision. That leaves room for BTC to fall again and potentially set a new low in November or even later.
Kuiper also highlighted a more constructive signal. From June through mid-August, digital asset volatility stayed subdued before expanding sharply, a pattern he said resembles the closing stages of several previous bear markets. He added that stablecoin transfers, real-world asset activity, and institutional participation have continued to grow during the same period.
Chris Kuiper, vice president of research at Fidelity Digital Assets, said the Bitcoin bear market may not be over yet, according to Odaily.
Kuiper said the rebound since August could be the start of a new advance, but it could also amount to a rally within a bear market. In his words, price gains alone do not guarantee that the bear market has ended.
November is the key window in his four-year cycle view
He said November is the period to watch under a four-year cycle framework, noting that the last bear market bottom came in November 2022.
Still, he added that historical cycles have never repeated with exact precision. BTC could decline again and set another low in November or after that.
Volatility pattern resembles prior late-stage bear markets
On the more constructive side, Kuiper said digital asset volatility remained low from June to mid-August before expanding sharply. He said that pattern looks similar to the final phase of several earlier bear markets and may suggest selling pressure is close to exhaustion.
During the same period, stablecoin transfers, real-world assets, and institutional participation continued to grow.
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