Core Thesis: Halving Poses No Threat to Long-Term Security
Fidelity Digital Assets, in its latest research report, clearly states that Bitcoin's halving does not weaken the network's long-term security. While the block subsidy has dropped from 6.25 BTC pre-halving to 3.125 BTC, the report argues that miner incentives are not solely reliant on block rewards. Transaction fees, Lightning Network earnings, and other on-chain economic activities together constitute miners' revenue streams, ensuring that network security does not inevitably decline as block subsidies decrease.
Miner Revenue Data: From $26,300 to $40.2 Million
The report highlights a dramatic shift in average daily miner revenue. During the first halving cycle, miners earned roughly $26,300 per day; in the current cycle, buoyed by Bitcoin's price rally, daily revenue has exceeded $40.2 million — a more than 1,528-fold increase. This data directly counters concerns that halving would squeeze miner profits and jeopardize network security. Fidelity believes that as long as Bitcoin's price maintains support, total miner revenue can be sustained or even grow, incentivizing more hashrate to join and fortify the network.
Historical Evidence: Price and Security Move in Tandem
Analyzing Bitcoin's three previous halvings, Fidelity Digital Assets notes that miner incentives and network security have consistently strengthened alongside Bitcoin's price appreciation. The reduction in block subsidies has not led to a decline in hashrate; instead, during price upcycles, miners have deployed more hardware and power, pushing hashrate to record highs. The report views this 'price-security' positive feedback loop as a core advantage of Bitcoin's design. Even as block subsidies continue to shrink, transaction fees will gradually become miners' primary income source, sustaining the security model's long-term viability.