Fidelity Digital Assets said in its Q3 2026 Signals Report that price and market sentiment indicators for Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) are broadly near historical lows, with several metrics close to capitulation territory. The firm said current valuations may reflect attractive long-term entry conditions.
NUPL data points to depressed positioning
As of the end of the second quarter, the weighted net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) across the three assets was -0.01. Bitcoin was the only asset still showing positive unrealized profits, sitting about 10% above its cost basis and carrying roughly $108 billion in unrealized gains.
Ethereum and Solana were 30% and 41% below their respective cost bases, with unrealized losses of about $87 billion and $29 billion. Bitcoin’s market share rose quarter over quarter to 68%.
Backtest figures vary by asset
According to the report, historical backtesting suggests that current NUPL readings correspond to median one-year returns of 53% for BTC, 70% for ETH and 542% for SOL. Fidelity also said confidence in those samples falls from BTC to ETH to SOL.
For SOL, the same reading has appeared only 21 times historically, and those instances were concentrated in late 2025, which the report said limits the statistical significance.
Stablecoin transfer value hits records, fees keep falling
On fundamentals, the report said stablecoin transfer value on Ethereum and Solana reached record highs. Over the past 12 months, the figure exceeded $20 trillion on Ethereum and $2.6 trillion on Solana.
At the same time, network fee revenue on both chains continued to decline.
Fidelity links lower Bitcoin hash rate to AI and HPC shift
The report also attributed Bitcoin’s 22% drop in hash rate from its peak to miners redirecting computing power toward AI and high-performance computing. It said AI contract revenue has been more stable while Bitcoin prices remain weak.