Bitcoin has yet to join the rebound seen in U.S. equities and gold, even as spot Bitcoin ETF flows in the United States have turned positive again and several long-term on-chain indicators have moved closer to historically depressed levels. Since peaking at about $126,000 in October last year, Bitcoin has remained in a prolonged correction and has spent the past 30 days trading sideways between $62,000 and $66,000, according to CoinGecko. Over the past 90 days, Glassnode said the S&P 500 rose about 5% while Bitcoin fell 20%, underscoring a sharp divergence in performance. The report, written by Nancy for PANews and republished by Blockcast, points to a mix of countervailing forces. On one side, Santiment Intelligence data showed 2.27 million new BTC wallets and 751,000 active wallets over the past week, while SoSoValue recorded five straight trading days of net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, totaling $854 million, the strongest weekly result since April 17. On the other side, miner selling, liquidity needs at crypto DAT companies, and weak U.S. spot demand continue to weigh on price action. CryptoQuant said miner-linked OTC balances have dropped from about 500,000 BTC in November 2021 to 139,700 BTC, while Coinglass showed the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has stayed negative for 80 consecutive days. PAData’s bottom-fishing dashboard shows only 4 of 12 core indicators in the hit zone, suggesting some bottoming signs are in place but a full cyclical low has not yet been confirmed.

Bitcoin has dropped from roughly $126,080 in October to the low-$60,000 range, a drawdown of nearly 50% that has weighed on market sentiment. Two new research notes, one from asset manager VanEck and another from blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant, argue that the move still resembles patterns seen in prior Bitcoin cycles rather than a structural break. VanEck said in a Thursday report that the current downturn lines up with Bitcoin’s historical four-year halving cycle, where mining rewards are cut and new supply tightens. Using its GEO framework, which tracks global liquidity, ecosystem leverage, and on-chain activity, the firm said two of the three indicators are neutral while ecosystem leverage remains constructive. VanEck said that mix may point to early bottoming conditions and could justify gradually adding exposure. CryptoQuant reached a similar broad conclusion from on-chain data, especially adjusted Net Unrealized Profit/Loss, or NUPL. Its analysts said long-term holders are now sitting on deeper unrealized losses than the broader market, a pattern analyst MorenoDV said has appeared at every major cycle bottom so far. Still, the firm cautioned that the metric has not yet hit the deeper negative extremes seen before previous cycle lows, leaving room for another sharp capitulation unless stronger institutional demand and a more resilient holder base shorten the damage this time.

Bitcoin has yet to join the rebound seen in U.S. equities and gold, even as some market conditions begin to improve. After peaking at about $126,000 in October last year, the asset has stayed in a prolonged correction and has recently traded sideways between $62,000 and $66,000 over the past 30 days, according to CoinGecko. PANews, in a report by Nancy cited by MarsBit, said the disconnect has persisted despite renewed inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and a pickup in several long-term valuation and cycle indicators. Data cited in the report showed U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted net inflows for five straight trading days last week, totaling $854 million, the strongest weekly performance since April 17, according to SoSoValue. At the same time, Santiment Intelligence recorded 2.27 million new BTC wallets over the past week and 751,000 active wallets, though the jump in activity was linked in part to security concerns triggered by the Coldcard wallet incident rather than outright risk appetite. The report argued that persistent selling from miners and crypto DAT companies, along with weak U.S. spot demand reflected in an 80-day negative Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index streak, has capped price recovery. PAData’s bottom-fishing dashboard showed 4 of 12 core indicators have entered hit zones, but broader metrics tied to valuation, sentiment, profitability, liquidity, and on-chain activity have not yet reached the extreme levels that have historically marked a confirmed cycle bottom.

CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV_ said data shows Ethereum’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss, or NUPL, on Binance has dropped back to about -0.35. According to the analyst, that level has historically coincided several times with zones tied to major price bottoms. NUPL tracks the unrealized profit and loss condition of a specific holding cohort. A negative reading at the current level indicates that the relevant Ethereum positions are, on the whole, sitting in relatively deep unrealized losses. The update was cited by ChainCatcher in a brief market analysis item.

PANews’ daily roundup on Aug. 11 centered on two balance-sheet stories with direct relevance to crypto markets. Strategy said it sold 1,690 BTC last week and lifted its U.S. dollar reserve to about $4.65 billion, while also raising roughly $653 million through its at-the-market equity program. CEO Phong Le said the company had adjusted its approach because bitcoin alone could not meet investor demand, adding that institutional investors place greater value on cash and that Strategy now holds $4.75 billion in cash, enough to cover roughly 2.7 years of preferred dividends. Trump Media, by contrast, reported a first-half loss of $360.6 million tied to the decline in crypto asset prices. As of June 30, the company held 9,477.16 BTC with a fair value of $557.1 million, down by 65 BTC from the end of March, while its Cronos holdings stayed unchanged at about 756.1 million tokens but fell in fair value from $68 million at the end of 2025 to $40.6 million. The report also noted that most of its bitcoin had been pledged as collateral. Elsewhere, South Korea approved tougher crypto rules that tighten scrutiny of exchange major shareholders and remove the 1 million won threshold for the Travel Rule, extending it to all transfers. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $145 million on Aug. 10, with BlackRock’s IBIT seeing the largest single-day net outflow at $53.56 million.

Bitcoin buyers who entered within the past three months are close to breaking even again, but the pressure has not disappeared — it has moved to an older cohort. In an Aug. 11 on-chain market note, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr said the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss, or NUPL, for holders aged 0 to 3 months had recovered to -0.02, leaving them roughly 2% away from breakeven. The 3-to-6-month group, by contrast, was still at -0.14. Using Bitcoin’s Aug. 11 spot price of $64,048, the report implied an average cost basis of about $65,300 for the 0-to-3-month cohort and $72,989 for the 3-to-6-month cohort. Adler argued this shows where unrealized stress is now concentrated. He also pointed to a worsening drawdown in realized cap for the 3-to-6-month segment, which fell from -53% in mid-June to -69.6%, while clarifying that the metric tracks how far a cohort’s realized value sits below its own peak rather than direct realized losses. The report also placed Bitcoin’s range-bound price action next to macro headwinds, derivatives positioning, and two on-chain levels to watch: whether the 3-to-6-month cohort’s NUPL can return above zero, and whether the 0-to-3-month group falls back below -0.10.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr said in an Aug. 11 post that recent Bitcoin buyers are getting closer to break-even. Holders of BTC for 0-3 months now show a NUPL of -0.02, recovering from -0.13 since June. Meanwhile, holders of BTC for 3-6 months remain deeply underwater, with NUPL at -0.14, implying an average cost basis still well above the current price. The 3-6 month cohort's realized cap drawdown has also worsened to -69.6%, the lowest level in 90 days, compared with about -64% for the 0-3 month group. Adler said the near-break-even position of the newest buyers is a positive signal, but a broader recovery requires the 3-6 month group's NUPL to climb back above zero and its realized drawdown to stop widening and begin recovering. The main stress within young BTC supply, he added, has shifted from the latest entrants to the 3-6 month holders.

Fidelity Digital Assets said in its latest Q3 Signals Report that the broader crypto market remains only slightly below break-even, with a weighted Net Unrealized Profit/Loss, or NUPL, reading of -0.01. The report said Bitcoin is doing most of the heavy lifting: BTC dominance rose to 68% in the second quarter of 2026, while Ethereum and Solana both stayed in unrealized loss territory. Fidelity argued that the current drawdown may be much less mature than some investors assume. The firm said the adjustment has lasted 203 days so far, versus roughly 300 days during the market bottoms seen in 2018 and 2022. On that basis, the present cycle may be only about two-thirds complete. The report pointed to October 2026 as a time window worth watching, while stressing that this should not be read as a market-bottom call. The research also broke down individual asset signals. Bitcoin’s NUPL stood at 0.09, its momentum signal remained negative, and its Yardstick valuation metric was near historically low levels. Ethereum showed weaker fundamentals, ETF outflows and a lower staking rate, while Solana posted resilient on-chain activity and stablecoin transfer growth even as fee income stayed close to cyclical lows.