Bitcoin New Buyers Near Break-Even as 3-6 Month Holders Carry the Losses

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr says the newest Bitcoin buyers are almost back to break-even, while investors who entered the market three to six months ago are still facing heavy paper losses. In an Aug. 11 post, Adler put the 0-3 month holder cohort's NUPL at -0.02, effectively flat after improving from -0.13 in June. The 3-6 month group, by contrast, still sits at -0.14, a level that indicates its average purchase price remains well above where BTC trades now. The divergence shows up in realized cap drawdown as well. For the 3-6 month cohort, the metric has slipped to -69.6%, the worst reading in the past 90 days. The 0-3 month group's reading is around -64%. Adler said this points to easing pressure for the latest buyers, but earlier entrants are still carrying larger unrealized losses. Adler called the near-break-even NUPL among 0-3 month holders a positive signal for the market. Still, he argued that a broader recovery will only be confirmed once the 3-6 month cohort's NUPL moves back above zero and its realized market drawdown stabilizes and begins to repair. The pressure inside the young coin supply, he said, has now moved from recent buyers to the 3-6 month holder group.