Fidelity Digital Assets Research said in its latest Q3 Signals Report that Bitcoin, Ether and Solana are still working through a bottoming process rather than a confirmed market recovery. The report placed the market near break-even on a market-cap-weighted basis, with weighted NUPL at -0.01 and Bitcoin dominance rising to 68%, a sign that residual unrealized profit is still concentrated in BTC while ETH and SOL remain in loss territory. Drawing on prior bear-market base periods in 2018 and 2022, both of which lasted about 300 days, Fidelity said the current downturn has run for roughly 203 days and may be about two-thirds complete. It added that October 2026 is a time window worth watching, while stressing that this is not a call that the market will bottom then. The report also broke down asset-specific signals. For Bitcoin, Fidelity described NUPL as a positive signal at 0.09, while momentum, relative performance against gold and hash-rate trends remained weak. For Ether, NUPL and stablecoin transfers were viewed favorably, but momentum and network fees stayed under pressure. For Solana, Fidelity said deep unrealized losses, resilient on-chain activity and growing stablecoin flows may point to a developing base, even as momentum is still negative. Across the market, the firm pointed to persistent spot ETP outflows, a nearly $6 billion liquidation cascade from June 1 to June 4, and macro headwinds as factors keeping pressure on digital assets.

Fidelity Digital Assets said in its Q3 2026 Signals Report that pricing and sentiment indicators for Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana are broadly sitting near historical lows, with several measures approaching capitulation territory. The firm said current valuation levels may line up with attractive long-term entry conditions. By the end of the second quarter, the weighted net unrealized profit/loss, or NUPL, for the three assets stood at -0.01. Bitcoin was the only one still showing positive unrealized profits, trading about 10% above its cost basis with roughly $108 billion in unrealized gains. Ethereum and Solana, by contrast, were 30% and 41% below cost basis, carrying about $87 billion and $29 billion in unrealized losses. Bitcoin’s market share also rose quarter over quarter to 68%. The report added that historical backtests point to median one-year returns of 53% for BTC, 70% for ETH and 542% for SOL at current NUPL readings, while cautioning that the sample quality declines across the three assets. For SOL, the reading has appeared only 21 times historically, mostly in late 2025.

CryptoComLearn says there is no single perfect time to sell crypto. Common reasons include price targets, portfolio rebalancing, cash needs, and changes in risk tolerance or conviction.

Retail demand for ETH has climbed sharply, yet SOPR remains near 1 and NUPL has not reached historic bear-market lows. Analysts say strong buying without price follow-through may point to heavy selling pressure elsewhere in the market.

Tiger Research forecasts Bitcoin at $185,500 by Q1 2026, citing Fed easing, M2 growth, and regulatory progress. ETF outflows and geopolitical risks led to a target cut but upside remains ~100%.

CryptoQuant analyst Joao Wedson says Bitcoin’s strongest bull phases tend to begin only after long-term holder NUPL turns negative, with historical halving cycles pointing to early to mid-2026.

Glassnode's latest weekly report shows a contradictory market: spot and futures markets see rising selling pressure and shorting, but US ETF inflows remain strong and long-term holders stay put, providing a downside cushion.

CryptoQuant said Bitcoin’s 100-day NUPL average is moving lower but still has not reached levels seen at past bear market bottoms. The firm said the zero line remains a key level, though not a fixed rule.