Tiger Research released its Q1 2026 Bitcoin outlook, setting a target price of $185,500, implying roughly 100% upside from current levels around $96,000. The report examines macro conditions, on-chain data, and regulatory developments.
Fed Easing Cycle Continues, M2 Hits Record High
The Federal Reserve delivered three consecutive rate cuts from September to December 2025, totaling 75 basis points, bringing the federal funds rate to 3.50%–3.75%. The December dot plot projects the rate falling to 3.4% by end-2026. With Chair Powell's term ending in May, the Trump administration may appoint a more dovish successor, keeping the easing bias intact.
Global M2 money supply hit an all-time high in Q4 2024 and continues to expand. Historically, Bitcoin has led liquidity cycles, often rallying before M2 peaks and consolidating during peak phases. Rising liquidity supports further upside, the report notes, especially if equity valuations appear stretched.
Institutional Outflows Weigh, Corporate Buying Persists
Despite a favorable macro backdrop, institutional demand softened. Spot ETFs saw $4.57 billion in outflows during November–December, the largest since launch. Annual net inflows of $21.4 billion were down 39% from $35.2 billion last year. January rebalancing brought some inflows, but sustainability is uncertain. Meanwhile, MicroStrategy (holding 673,783 BTC, ~3.2% of supply), Metaplanet, and Mara continued to accumulate.
CLARITY Act as Policy Catalyst
With institutional demand stalled, regulatory progress offers a potential trigger. The CLARITY Act, passed by the House, clarifies SEC and CFTC jurisdiction, allows banks to offer digital asset custody and staking, and gives CFTC oversight of digital commodity spot markets. The Senate Banking Committee is set to review the bill on January 15. If passed, it could draw in traditional financial institutions that have been on the sidelines.
On-Chain Support and Resistance Levels Clear
On-chain data reveals strong demand forming a $84,000 support zone, while $98,000 — the average cost basis of short-term holders — acts as psychological and technical resistance. Key indicators like MVRV-Z (1.25), NUPL (0.39), and aSOPR (1.00) have left undervalued territory and entered fair-value range, suggesting healthy market structure. The growing share of institutional and long-term capital reduces the likelihood of retail-driven panic, with the recent pullback appearing as a gradual rebalancing.
Target Revised Down to $185,500, Bullish Stance Unchanged
Using its TVM framework, Tiger Research derives a neutral baseline of $145,000 for Q1 2026 (down from $154,000 previously). The fundamental adjustment factor was raised from -2% to 0% (renewed interest in BTCFi offset bearish signals), while the macro factor was lowered from +35% to +25% (factoring slowing institutional inflows, Fed leadership transition, and geopolitical risks). The resulting target is $185,500. The report emphasizes that even after the downward revision, the model still implies roughly 100% upside, and the recent correction is a healthy rebalancing — the medium-to-long-term bullish outlook remains intact.