Fidelity Digital Assets' Q4 crypto market outlook says Bitcoin and the broader digital-asset market rallied hard in late August, leaving BTC, ETH and other majors with their largest monthly gains since the end of 2025. BTC rose more than 25% in a single week in late August, while ETH gained 34.1% and SOL 28%. The report questions the common assumption that the bear market will bottom in November under the four-year cycle theory. The bottom may already have come in July, or prices may hit new lows in November or even later, Fidelity argues. It also notes bear markets historically end with a low-volatility phase followed by an upward expansion in price. Headwinds such as hardware wallet security incidents and the stalled CLARITY bill have failed to drag prices down, which could underpin the idea that crypto is nearing a floor. Elsewhere, stablecoin volumes have reached 2.3 times Visa's, RWA markets are growing faster in 2026 than in previous years, and on-chain adoption keeps expanding. The CLARITY Act remains in the Senate, and the SEC proposed a Regulation Crypto Assets framework last week. Fidelity's advice: keep a long-term focus.
Fidelity Digital Assets has published a Q4 outlook for crypto markets built around an unusually strong August. BTC, ETH and other major tokens recorded their largest monthly gains since the end of 2025, after bitcoin and the wider market jumped in late August. BTC rose more than 25% in a single week in late August, while ETH gained 34.1% and SOL rose 28%.
Some investors, leaning on the four-year cycle theory, are watching November as a possible bear-market bottom. Fidelity pushes back on that timeline. The pattern will not necessarily repeat, the report says. The bottom may already have arrived in July, or new lows may come in November or later. Historically, bear markets have ended after a stretch of low volatility, followed by upward price expansion.
Recent hardware wallet security incidents and the stalled CLARITY bill numbered among potential negatives that did not push prices lower. That resilience, the report argues, could strengthen the case that crypto assets are approaching a bottom.
Adoption metrics keep climbing. Stablecoin transaction volume has reached 2.3 times that of Visa. RWA markets are growing faster in 2026 than in earlier years. On the policy side, the CLARITY Act remains under Senate consideration, and the SEC last week proposed a Regulation Crypto Assets framework.
The report's parting advice for investors: keep a long-term perspective.
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