Christopher Smith, founder of blockchain startup Quantus, says the first quantum attack could look like a burst of unexplained cryptocurrency wallet thefts, not a direct hit on Satoshi Nakamoto's dormant Bitcoin, which is estimated to be worth around $63 billion. A powerful enough quantum computer could derive private keys from public keys exposed on-chain, letting attackers move funds without breaking into wallets, devices, or exchange systems. For highly secure institutions, the only forensic evidence might be that no intrusion exists at all. Smith believes early targets could include military systems and state secrets. In the blockchain space, Tether's minting keys may be even more valuable: an attacker with that access could mint tokens from nowhere and sell them before the issuer can respond. Google has moved its post-quantum migration timeline to 2029, while Smith puts the odds of quantum computers breaking modern cryptography around 2028 at “50-50.” Relevant blockchains have already started shifting to post-quantum signatures.
Blockchain startup Quantus founder Christopher Smith warns that the first quantum attack may not target Satoshi Nakamoto’s sleeping Bitcoin, estimated at around $63 billion. Instead, he said, it could look like a burst of unexplained crypto wallet thefts.
A sufficiently powerful quantum computer could recover private keys from public keys exposed on-chain. Attackers would not need to breach a wallet, a device, or an exchange’s internal systems to move funds. For highly secured institutions, the only forensic evidence could be the total absence of intrusion traces.
Smith expects military systems and state secrets to be among the first targets. In the blockchain sector, Tether’s minting keys may be even more valuable. An attacker holding those keys could mint tokens out of thin air and dump them before the issuer can respond.
Google has accelerated its post-quantum migration timeline to 2029. Smith puts the odds of quantum computers cracking modern cryptography around 2028 at “50-50.” Relevant blockchains have already begun moving to post-quantum signatures.
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