Forbes has warned that Bitcoin may fail to hold its “digital gold” narrative in the short term as crude oil moves back above $100 per barrel. In its analysis, sustained high energy prices could push BTC lower from the current $70,000 area, while a harsher scenario points to a decline toward $40,000 to $45,000.
The report ties that risk to rising geopolitical tension involving Iran and the broader macro pressure that comes with higher oil prices. According to Forbes, a sharp move up in oil tends to revive inflation concerns, making it harder for central banks to ease rates. That setup usually weighs on risk assets, and Bitcoin has not shown the stability normally associated with a classic safe-haven trade.
Bitcoin has struggled during major oil swings
After reviewing historical data, Forbes said Bitcoin has often come under pressure both when oil drops sharply and when it rallies through $100. The pace of the decline may differ, but the direction has often been similar. The report also said BTC’s correlation with the Nasdaq 100 ETF reaches 85.4% during oil spikes, placing it much closer to a high-beta tech asset than to a traditional hard asset or inflation hedge.
Bitcoin has recently moved higher during the US-Iran conflict period, which runs against that pattern. Forbes cautioned that this divergence may not last if elevated oil prices remain in place for an extended period. If that happens, BTC could slip back into the kind of pressure seen in past episodes.
Two downside paths tied to oil prices
In the milder case, if oil remains above $100 per barrel for a long period, Bitcoin could fall another 15% to 25% from the current $70,000 range, bringing it down to roughly $50,000 to $58,000.
In the more severe case, if the Iran conflict escalates and drives oil to $130 to $140, Forbes said BTC could retreat to $40,000 to $45,000. That would imply downside of more than 40% from current levels.
Where BTC stands now
The source material says Bitcoin is trading near $72,000, down about 40% from its all-time high of $126,000 set in October 2025. Forbes described the current structure as a long-term technical correction.
The report also outlined what could support a rebound. In past macro crises, fiscal stimulus and expanding liquidity have often followed. If oil falls back below $80 per barrel within the next few months, Forbes said Bitcoin could begin recovering by late 2026, improving the odds of another move above $100,000.