Steven Schoenfeld, former head of International Equity Product Strategy at Barclays Global Investors (now Blackrock), predicted on Tuesday that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will likely approve all spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications within the next three to six months. Speaking at the Ccdata Digital Asset Summit, he also estimated that the greenlighting of spot bitcoin and ethereum ETFs could inject between $150 billion and $200 billion into these investment products.
Veteran Investment Manager's Outlook
Schoenfeld, a 36-year veteran of the investment management industry who previously held senior fiduciary roles at Northern Trust and managed over $70 billion in index funds and ETFs at Barclays Global Investors, shared his updated timeline for SEC approval. 'Two weeks ago I would have said nine to 12 months away. Sitting here today I would say it's closer to three to six months,' he stated. He highlighted a marginal but significant improvement in the SEC's stance: the agency recently requested public comments on spot bitcoin ETF applications instead of outright rejection. He also pointed to the Grayscale lawsuit victory against the SEC, which likely forces the agency to allow the conversion of Grayscale GBTC into an ETF.
Massive Capital Inflow Potential
Drawing parallels to the launch of the gold ETF in 2004, Schoenfeld estimated that spot bitcoin and ethereum ETFs could attract $150 billion to $200 billion in inflows over three years, representing three to four times the current size of listed bitcoin products. 'The sheer size of the U.S. institutional market, financial advisor market, self-directed retail investors — it's enormous, and to have a product that will be accessible to them … the assets will move into these products,' he noted.
Schoenfeld's optimism is echoed by other market participants. JPMorgan recently stated it expects the SEC to approve multiple spot bitcoin ETFs simultaneously. Several U.S. Congress members have urged the SEC to 'immediately' approve spot bitcoin ETFs, citing no valid reason for denial. Analysts predict the first approval by mid-March 2025, and former SEC Chair Jay Clayton called the approval 'inevitable' amid clear institutional demand for BTC exposure.