Steven Schoenfeld, CEO of MarketVector Indexes and a former senior executive at Barclays Global Investors, said he believes the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission could approve all pending spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund applications within three to six months. Speaking at the Ccdata Digital Asset Summit, Schoenfeld argued that the regulatory tone has shifted enough to make a broad approval scenario increasingly plausible.
His comments stand out because they combine both a timing forecast and a market impact estimate. In Schoenfeld’s view, the approval of spot bitcoin ETFs — and potentially spot ethereum ETFs as well — could unlock $150 billion to $200 billion in inflows over a three-year period, dramatically expanding the market for listed digital asset investment products.
A Faster Approval Window
Schoenfeld said his own expectations changed quickly. Just two weeks earlier, he would have put the likely timeline for approval at nine to 12 months. But after recent developments, he now sees the process moving much faster, bringing the window down to roughly three to six months.
The reason, he explained, is not that the SEC has suddenly become openly supportive of crypto products, but that the regulatory dialogue appears to be evolving. According to Schoenfeld, the SEC recently chose to request comments on spot bitcoin ETF applications rather than simply rejecting the entire slate. He described that as a modest but meaningful improvement in engagement between issuers and the regulator.
That shift matters because the market has long interpreted the SEC’s posture through procedural signals as much as through formal rulings. In an environment where prior applications were repeatedly denied, even incremental changes in process can be viewed as evidence that approval odds are improving.
The Grayscale Case Adds Pressure
Schoenfeld also pointed to the SEC’s loss in the Grayscale lawsuit as another important factor. In his assessment, that legal setback increases the likelihood that the agency will ultimately have to allow Grayscale’s GBTC trust to convert into an ETF structure.
The Grayscale decision has become a central reference point in the ETF debate because it challenged the logic behind the SEC’s previous treatment of spot bitcoin products. For market participants, the case suggested that the regulator may face growing difficulty in maintaining a consistent rationale for rejecting spot products while allowing related futures-based vehicles.
By highlighting the Grayscale ruling, Schoenfeld underscored that the ETF story is no longer just about product demand. It is also about how legal and procedural developments may constrain the SEC’s room to continue delaying approval.
Why the Market Opportunity Is So Large
Beyond regulatory timing, Schoenfeld emphasized the scale of the U.S. investment market that could gain access to spot crypto ETFs. He pointed to three major channels: institutional investors, financial advisors, and self-directed retail investors. In his view, once a regulated and easily accessible product becomes available, capital is likely to migrate into it.
He said the assets under management tied to existing bitcoin investment products could double or even triple. That projection reflects the idea that a spot ETF would be operationally simpler for many investors than using crypto exchanges or other less familiar structures. For advisors and institutions in particular, ETF wrappers can fit more naturally into portfolio construction, compliance processes, and client mandates.
Schoenfeld said his estimate draws in part from historical statistics around the launch of gold ETFs in 2004. Using that comparison, he argued that if anything similar were to happen in bitcoin — and potentially in ethereum as well — the result could be between $150 billion and $200 billion of inflows into these products over three years.
He added that such a figure would be roughly three to four times the size of the current set of listed bitcoin products, making the impact significant not just for ETF issuers but for the broader digital asset market.
Broader Wall Street and Political Support
Schoenfeld is not alone in expecting a broader approval wave. JPMorgan has also indicated that it expects the SEC could approve multiple spot bitcoin ETFs at the same time, rather than selecting a single issuer. That possibility has become an important part of the market narrative, as simultaneous approvals could help the regulator avoid appearing to favor one applicant over another.
Political pressure has also been building. Several members of Congress have urged the SEC to approve spot bitcoin ETFs immediately, arguing that there is no sound basis for continued denial. At the same time, some analysts have forecast that the first approval could arrive by mid-March of the following year.
Former SEC Chair Jay Clayton has also weighed in, saying institutional investors clearly want access to bitcoin and that approval of spot bitcoin ETFs is effectively “inevitable.” While such remarks do not determine SEC policy, they reinforce the sense that support for these products now extends well beyond crypto-native circles.
What Approval Could Mean for Crypto Markets
If the SEC does move forward with approval, the decision would likely mark one of the most consequential regulatory milestones in the history of digital asset investing in the United States. A spot bitcoin ETF would give traditional investors exposure to bitcoin through a familiar, regulated vehicle traded on mainstream exchanges.
That could have implications far beyond fund launches themselves. Greater access may improve market participation, increase liquidity in related products, and deepen the integration of crypto assets into conventional investment portfolios. It could also intensify competition among issuers on fees, custody arrangements, and distribution strategy.
Still, Schoenfeld’s outlook remains a forecast rather than a confirmed regulatory outcome. The SEC has not announced a final decision, and timing remains subject to the agency’s review process. Even so, his updated assessment reflects a growing view on Wall Street that the odds of approval have improved materially.
For now, the main takeaway is that expectations are shifting. What looked like a distant possibility to many observers is increasingly being discussed as a near-term event. If that momentum continues, the launch of spot bitcoin ETFs could become a major turning point for both the U.S. regulatory landscape and the next phase of institutional crypto adoption.