The 2026 World Cup has been underway for less than two weeks, and the top title favorite on prediction markets has already changed. Kalshi data as of June 24 shows France rising from 16.1% before kickoff to 20.7% to win the tournament, moving ahead of Spain, which slipped to 13.4%. Argentina also climbed sharply, from 8.8% to 14.6%, while Portugal and Brazil moved lower during the group stage.
This is the first World Cup with 48 teams, and the tournament format has changed with it. The top two teams from each of the 12 groups, plus the eight best third-place finishers, advance to a new Round of 32. The bigger field has not made the group phase easy. Mexico, the United States, Germany, and Argentina have already secured qualification, while Haiti, Turkey, and Tunisia have been eliminated early.
France takes the lead as Argentina and the U.S. gain ground
France has posted one of the clearest upward moves in market pricing. After opening with a 3-1 win over Senegal, its championship odds pushed higher and reached the top spot. Argentina has also drawn strong buying interest. Lionel Messi scored twice against Austria, bringing his career World Cup total to 18 goals, passing Klose for the all-time record. He has 5 goals in this tournament so far.
The United States has become one of the biggest in-tournament risers among host nations. A 4-1 win over Paraguay followed by a 2-0 result against Australia lifted its title probability from 1.6% before the tournament to 4.9%. Germany also advanced early after beating Curacao 7-1 and Ivory Coast 2-1, though its outright price has stayed almost flat at around 5%.
Spain, Portugal, and Brazil lose momentum
Spain entered the tournament as Kalshi’s top favorite at 16.4%, but that figure had fallen to 13.4% by June 24. The team still had a major positive moment, with Yamal returning from a two-month hamstring layoff and scoring 10 minutes into his comeback start in a 4-0 win over Saudi Arabia. Even so, market pricing shows Spain no longer holding first place.
Portugal has seen a sharper swing. It started at 10.5%, dropped to around 7.0% after being held by Congo, then recovered to 9.2% after Cristiano Ronaldo scored twice in a 5-0 win over Uzbekistan. Brazil moved the other way, sliding from 8.5% to 4.9%, making it one of the larger declines among the pre-tournament contenders.
Two “groups of death” are already in focus
Groups I and K remain the most closely watched sections of the tournament. In Group I, Norway and France both sit on 3 points after the opening round, with Norway on +3 goal difference and France on +2. Their June 26 meeting is framed as a direct Mbappe-versus-Haaland matchup and could decide first place. Kalshi pricing for that game gives France a 61% chance to win, Norway 19%, and the draw 22%.
Group K is also tight. Colombia leads after the first round with 3 points and a +2 goal difference, while Portugal sits third on 1 point after the draw with Congo. The June 27 meeting between Colombia and Portugal carries major weight. Kalshi prices that match at 24% for Colombia, 24% for a draw, and 52% for Portugal. For Portugal, it is a key match in repairing both its standings position and market valuation.
Prediction markets are reshuffling the title board
As of June 24, Kalshi’s outright rankings place France first at 20.7%, followed by Argentina at 14.6%, Spain at 13.4%, England at 12.7%, and Portugal at 9.2%. The Netherlands has also moved up quickly, from 4.0% to 7.0%, while Norway edged from 2.5% to 2.9%.
With an expanded field, new qualification rules, and tighter group-stage pressure, the 2026 World Cup has produced rapid repricing in prediction markets. Before the tournament, Spain and France were nearly level. By the middle of the group stage, market traders had already pushed France into clear first place.