ChainCatcher said Galaxy Research (@glxyresearch) is drawing attention to Bitcoin’s 50-week moving average, which is currently around $82,000. The firm said that across six completed bear markets, BTC reclaimed the 50-week average 13 times, and 11 of those moves marked the formation of a bear-market low. The failure rate was about 15%. By comparison, the 50-day average has been much noisier. Galaxy Research added that if BTC closes this week above the 50-week average on a weekly basis, history suggests this bear market is likely over.
ChainCatcher said Galaxy Research (@glxyresearch) is highlighting Bitcoin’s 50-week moving average, which is currently around $82,000.
According to the firm, historical data shows that across six completed bear markets, BTC reclaimed the 50-week average 13 times. Eleven of those recoveries marked the formation of a bear-market low, putting the failure rate at roughly 15%.
The 50-day moving average, Galaxy Research said, has been far noisier. In the same six bear markets, BTC reclaimed the 50-day average 106 times, and 43 of those moves ultimately failed. In each bear market, the first reclaim of the 50-day average also failed.
Galaxy Research added that if BTC finishes this week with a weekly close above the 50-week average, history suggests the current bear market is likely over.
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