Artemis says the market is pricing Circle too cheaply.
In a new thesis, the firm argues that Circle is not just a stablecoin issuer. It is building a full-stack money platform for the internet, and that distinction matters for how investors should value the company.
The core bull case has three parts. First, Artemis expects stablecoin supply to grow at a 40% compound annual rate and pass $1 trillion by 2030. Second, it says liquidity and network effects create a winner-take-most market, making it hard for any new consortium to take meaningful share. Third, it argues that investors are still anchoring Circle to the wrong model: an issuer, not a platform.
Open Standard is the latest test of that view. The consortium, backed by more than 140 companies, counts Stripe, Visa, Mastercard and Google among its members. Circle fell 17% on the day the group was announced, which also marked the company’s second-worst trading day ever. Artemis says the reaction showed how worried the market was that Open Standard could reshape the stablecoin field and redistribute revenue away from Circle and Tether.
But the firm is skeptical that the alliance can deliver. It says successful consortia need aligned incentives, clear governance and real survival pressure. On those three tests, Artemis says Open Standard currently clears only about one-third of the bar.
The note also pushes back on the idea that stablecoin growth is tied to crypto prices. Artemis says stablecoin supply has, for the first time, decoupled from the broader crypto cycle. While crypto assets have fallen 50% to 70% from prior highs, stablecoin supply has held steady. If the last three years of growth continue, Artemis believes global stablecoin supply can still top $1 trillion by 2030.
Liquidity, the firm says, is the real moat. Even with hundreds of stablecoins in circulation, Circle and Tether still control more than 80% of supply. Cross-chain, cross-app and cross-exchange liquidity is hard to build from scratch, which has left most challengers far behind.
Artemis also argues that the market is using the wrong valuation lens. Circle’s revenue is heavily driven by interest income, so investors often treat it like a rate-sensitive, crypto-linked business. The firm says that misses the bigger picture: Circle is assembling a broader set of money products and should be viewed more like a technology company.
The valuation math in the thesis is straightforward. Circle’s annualized revenue run-rate is about $2.8 billion, its market value is about $18 billion, and its price-to-sales ratio is roughly 6.7x. That is below payment networks at about 14x and high-growth fintech names such as HOOD at around 17x. Artemis says Circle’s multiple is also similar to Coinbase, even though the market mainly sees Coinbase as a crypto exchange.
In a base case, Artemis says Circle could justify a 10x multiple if its business keeps expanding beyond stablecoin issuance. If stablecoin supply reaches $1 trillion in 2030, USDC holds a 20% share and rates are 2%, CRCL could generate $4 billion in interest income alone.
The payments side is already showing momentum. Artemis says Circle Payments Network had an annualized volume of $23 billion at the end of July 2026, up 6.8x year over year and 70% quarter over quarter, though it notes the base was very small. If growth stays at a 60% to 65% compound rate, the network could approach $200 billion in volume by 2030. At a 20 bps take rate, that would add another $400 million in revenue.
Arc, Circle’s blockchain, could add more. If it reaches the scale of Tron, Artemis estimates Arc could contribute $500 million in fee revenue.
Put together, the thesis gets Circle to about $5 billion in revenue, with 20% of that coming from payments and settlement products. On that mix, Artemis says a $50 billion market cap is not out of reach.