Probability Downgrade: Scheduling and Political Gridlock
According to ChainCatcher, crypto research firm Galaxy Research has lowered its estimate of the CLARITY Act's chances of passing in 2026 from 60% to 50%, due to increasing time constraints in the Senate. The bill, designed to provide clear regulatory guidelines for digital assets, is facing a tough legislative path.
In its report, Galaxy Research highlighted the busy Senate calendar as the primary factor. Although the bill passed the Senate Banking Committee by a 15-9 vote on May 14 and was placed on the legislative calendar as item 423, it has neither released a merged text nor been scheduled for a floor vote. Furthermore, no leadership has publicly committed to advancing it. This stagnation leaves the bill's future highly uncertain.
The timing is critical: the Senate must announce a schedule by early July to allow a vote before the August recess. Otherwise, the vote would be delayed until September, when the looming 2026 midterm elections make any controversial issue even harder to push through. The legislative docket is already crowded with priorities such as FISA Section 702 reauthorization and the NDAA, while President Trump's veto of a housing bill has added further strain.
Ethics Disputes and Key Variables Ahead
Beyond scheduling, the bill's substantive content remains unresolved. The report specifically notes that ethics provisions are a core point of contention. At least two Republican senators are expected to vote against the bill, making Democratic support indispensable. This partisan dynamic adds another layer of uncertainty.
Galaxy Research proposes a key watchpoint: if Senate leadership clearly commits to a July vote within the next two weeks, the odds of passage could rebound to 60% or higher. Conversely, continued inaction would further reduce the probability. The broader crypto industry is closely monitoring this legislative development, as it will shape the U.S. digital asset regulatory landscape for years to come.