Bitcoin briefly broke above $85,000 before retreating, and Glassnode says the move came with several signs of strain rather than broad-based strength.
In a market report released on Oct. 7 Taipei time, the on-chain analytics firm said the rally was accompanied by weak trading volume, slow fresh capital inflows and softening holder behavior, raising questions about how durable the advance is in the short term.
Low volume and limited new capital cloud the move higher
Glassnode said aggregate spot exchange volume and U.S. spot ETF volume are still subdued. The 7-day average stands at about $6.8 billion a day, lower than roughly 90% of trading days since January 2024 and well below the peaks seen over the past two years. In other words, the break above $85,000 did not come with a convincing pickup in activity.
Capital flow data points to the same issue. Over the 30 days through Oct. 5, net inflows into U.S. spot ETFs, stablecoin market cap growth and corporate treasury buying added up to about $4.9 billion. Over the same period, Bitcoin’s realized cap rose by about $12.8 billion. That means less than two-fifths of the move was backed by new money, while the rest reflected existing capital rotating at higher prices. Glassnode said the rally remains heavily dependent on whether current holders are willing to keep buying higher unless inflows pick up materially.
Short-term holders are taking profit, and U.S. hours have flipped to net selling
Holder behavior has also shifted. On Oct. 4, when Bitcoin recorded its first daily close above $85,000, profit-taking accelerated. According to the report, 86% of the BTC sent to exchanges that day came from short-term holders, defined here as holders with coins younger than 155 days, and all of those flows were sold at a profit. Glassnode said that was the highest share seen in the past year.
Trading-session dynamics have changed as well. Before the late-September breakout, most of Bitcoin’s gains were recorded during U.S. trading hours. After the breakout, however, U.S. hours — the main window for U.S. equities and spot ETF trading — turned into a net-selling session. Recent net upside has been supported mainly by thinner Asian trading hours and weekend buying.
Options remain bullish, but liquidation pressure is concentrated below
Even with spot demand looking soft, options positioning still leans bullish. Glassnode said both open interest and volume put/call ratios are below 1, and traders are spending about $17 million more per day on call premium than on put premium. The firm warned that if price action stalls, that one-sided positioning could leave the market overheated.
Liquidation maps show the more immediate risk sits below the current price. Only about 17% of liquidation levels are above spot, while the largest liquidation cluster is concentrated between $81,700 and $83,300 and extends down toward $75,000. The largest spot bid area is now between $81,000 and $81,250. Taken together, Glassnode said the $81,000 area is the key line Bitcoin needs to defend if the market keeps sliding.
Altcoin leverage is rising, while macro data has yet to help
The report said altcoins are also starting to lose momentum. Tokens that outperformed Bitcoin through the end of September have recently pulled back, and the share of altcoins beating BTC has dropped sharply. Glassnode added that the ratio of open interest to market cap for large- and mid-cap altcoins is rising and has reached its highest level since October 2025, a sign that leverage has not fully cleared and could trigger cascading liquidations if prices fall further.
On the macro side, recent U.S. PCE and nonfarm payrolls data have not provided lasting support for Bitcoin. Price spikes following those releases have tended to fade within 12 hours. Glassnode said the market will now watch the CPI inflation data due on Oct. 14 for the next directional cue.