On Aug. 18, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode said Bitcoin is in a state of "high compression," with selling pressure fading but buyers still failing to return in a clear way.
According to Glassnode, BTC is trading mainly in a $63,000 to $68,700 range, while market activity has dropped to its lowest level since 2019.
Seller exhaustion has fallen to a multi-year low
Glassnode data shows that the 30-day Seller Exhaustion Constant has fallen to its lowest level since 2013. Even so, the firm said that does not yet confirm a historic market bottom.
Glassnode warned that if BTC breaks below $58,500, the next support level could come in at $52,800.
Analysts differ on where a bottom may form
Crypto analyst CryptoBusy said current seller exhaustion is approaching levels seen near earlier bear market bottoms. At the same time, the analyst noted that past cycles have also seen deeper sell-offs, which means Bitcoin may still need more selling pressure to clear before the market fully washes out.
Transform Group founder Michael Terpin said Bitcoin could bottom near $57,000 in October. He said a complete exhaustion of sellers is an important sign that a bear market has ended.
Still, there is no broad agreement on a bottoming call. Some analysts said only two of Glassnode’s 10 capitulation indicators have been triggered so far, putting a potential BTC bottom in the $49,000 to $53,000 range.
ETF flows and spot volume remain key signals
Those analysts also said it is still too early to confirm a sustained accumulation phase before ETF flows and spot trading volumes show a clear recovery.
Glassnode also warned that leveraged traders are already positioned for a market rebound, but current on-chain and market data do not yet provide enough support for that view.