Bitcoin’s recent gains still do not reflect a strong enough wave of fresh capital entering the market, according to Glassnode’s latest edition of The Week Onchain. The firm said rolling 30-day cumulative inflows of “new money” into Bitcoin reached about $4.9 billion as of Oct. 5, while the asset’s realized cap rose by $12.8 billion over the same period.
Realized cap growth outpaced fresh inflows
Glassnode said much of Bitcoin’s recent upside was driven by existing holders rather than new capital. In its methodology, “new money” includes purchases by corporate treasuries, stablecoin growth and inflows into US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds.
By comparison, Bitcoin’s realized cap — a metric that values each coin at the price when it last moved onchain — expanded by $12.8 billion in the 30 days through Oct. 5. Glassnode said the $4.9 billion in fresh inflows accounted for less than two-fifths of that increase, while the remainder came from coins changing hands at higher prices among money that was already in the market.
“New money therefore covers less than two fifths of that rise. The rest is coins changing hands at higher prices among money already in the market,” Glassnode wrote.
The accompanying data showed that BTC/USD rallies have displayed the same divergence since spot ETFs launched in January 2024. Glassnode added that the setup seen in 2024 and 2025 had a similar composition, but came with much larger inflows than the market is seeing now.
“The rallies of 2024 and 2025 showed a similar mix, but on far larger inflows,” the report said.
Bitcoin failed four times above $87,000
Since Sept. 21, Bitcoin has attempted four times to move above $87,000. Each attempt failed as buyers ran into thicker overhead ask liquidity on exchange order books. At the time of writing on Thursday, BTC/USD was trading around $83,000, down 1% month-to-date.
Short-term holders dominated profit-taking above $85,000
Glassnode also pointed to heavier profit-taking by recent buyers over the weekend, when Bitcoin recorded its first weekly close above $85,000 since January.
“Of all the coins sent to exchanges that day, about 86% came from short-term holders, those holding for less than 155 days, moving coins at a profit. That is the highest share of any day in the past year; on a typical day it is under two fifths,” it said.
Short-term holders are typically viewed as more sensitive to price volatility. Data from CryptoQuant cited in the report showed the cohort remained in net profit, with its aggregate cost basis, also referred to as realized price, at around $78,250 as of Oct. 7.