Glassnode’s latest Market Compass shows the composite score falling another 3 points to 23/100, placing the market in a defensive zone. The report also said the macro score dropped 8 points over the past week to 31/100 as the U.S. dollar index moved back near its 200-day moving average, while the on-chain fundamentals score rose to 52, the strongest reading in the current cycle.
Composite score weakens as macro repair fades
Glassnode said the composite score now sits 2 points below its level a week ago and 5 points below where it was a month ago. The macro score’s slide to 31/100 pushed the backdrop back to the tightening side as DXY returned to the area around its 200-day moving average. In the firm’s framing, three weeks of macro improvement were effectively erased in a single trading day.
At the same time, on-chain fundamentals improved to 52, which Glassnode described as the best reading of the current cycle. Capital flows, cycle positioning, and investor behavior were described as nearly unchanged. Even so, a move in one lens was enough to shift the broader dashboard.
Late-August broad rally has lost momentum
Two charts, according to the report, frame this edition’s main story: how broad the late-August rally really was, and who sold into Bitcoin’s rebound.
In late August, nearly all assets moved higher at the same time, making it the largest synchronized cross-asset rally of the year. The Altcoin Season Index returned to 75, and mid-cap tokens led the 30-day rankings.
Glassnode said this kind of broad, simultaneous advance has historically looked more like a risk zone than the starting point of a durable uptrend. That burst has already faded. The median 7-day return across asset groups has moved back close to zero, and the index briefly touched, then lost, the threshold associated with altcoin season.
Bitcoin rebound met with heavier profit-taking
Bitcoin rebounded to roughly a 47% premium over its relative realized price, but holders sold into that strength, the report said. Over the past three weeks, realized capital flows shifted from being dominated by losses to being dominated by profits. Long-term and short-term holders accounted for roughly half each, while the loss-taking side narrowed to only a small portion of total flow.
The realized profit/loss ratio climbed again and reached 2.63, a new high for the current cycle. Glassnode said this one-sided profit-taking resembles patterns seen during the 2024 and 2025 upswings. The kind of pullback expected by the cycle lens has not started so far.
What could change the setup
Glassnode said a U.S. dollar close firmly above the 200-day moving average would confirm a macro reversal and drag the composite score lower. If investor behavior turns higher instead, that could offset part of the pressure.
The report was authored by Glassnode and translated into Chinese by TechFlow.
