BlockTempo, citing trader 0xKyle, said gold may be setting up for another advance after falling 26% from its $5,300 high, with central banks said to be buying again and several technical signals turning higher.
The write-up says the note was first sent to subscribers on Aug. 9 and warns that price references may already be outdated. It also credits Cptlightyear, Riff and basedpotato for bringing the idea, charts and some of the views into focus.
A fresh look at the gold thesis after a deep pullback
0xKyle said he spent the weekend doing more due diligence on gold and compiled the article as a collection of what he found. In his telling, gold cycles have been compressing: 2000 to 2011 lasted 10 years, 2011 to 2020 lasted 9 years, and 2020 to 2022 lasted just 2 years.
He argues that the original long-term bullish case has strengthened over time. The article says that after Western countries froze Russian reserves, nations had to diversify away from developed-market fixed income, especially China. It adds that U.S. debt concerns have made buyers less willing to remain exposed to the world’s largest debtor, pushing them to look for alternatives. That, in his view, forms a broad and durable macro case for gold.
The piece says gold topped in February 2026 at $5,300 and then retraced 26%, leaving traders searching for a bottom. It lists several possible reasons for the decline, including Chinese liquidity, the Iran war and a pause in central bank buying.
Central bank demand is presented as the key signal
On liquidity, 0xKyle points to a chart tracking the yearly change in the People’s Bank of China’s net liquidity injections into China’s money market, measured daily and smoothed with a 50-day moving average. He says the chart shows a clear peak on March 2. From that point, liquidity stopped accelerating and began to contract.
He writes that daily reverse repo activity has picked up recently, though the direction is not yet clear. What appears clearer in the note is that central banks resumed buying after the quiet period in Q1, and that timing overlapped with the selloff.
The article also says these countries, especially a large buyer such as China, do not want speculative mania in the market. They want to accumulate as much as possible at the lowest possible price. When bullish enthusiasm runs too hot, they step back. Over the past few months, the speculative bid has broken down, which the author says lines up with RSI readings discussed later in the piece.
Sentiment has cooled as attention shifts elsewhere
0xKyle says investor focus has moved to semiconductor shares and momentum trades, leaving gold with far less attention than earlier in the year. He recalls seeing repeated photos of queues outside jewelry stores in January, and says those lines have now disappeared in the country where he lives.
He quotes Citrini as saying, 「When people are worried about the future, they buy gold. When they are worried about the present, they sell gold.」 The author uses that line to argue that wartime selling reflected concern about the immediate moment, while current behavior suggests people are no longer worried about the present.
That combination, he says, creates an attractive setup: asymmetry, timing and a market that still has not fully piled in. He describes it as the 「fattest trade」 he likes to find.
Macro pressure and seasonal support
On the macro side, the piece notes that higher real rates and a stronger U.S. dollar would usually be negative for gold. 0xKyle says the logic is straightforward: gold does not pay interest, so higher real yields can make bonds more attractive, and a stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for buyers using other currencies.
Even so, he says gold did not break below $4,000. He adds that he tried going long gold multiple times without success. What began as bearish-looking range trading around $4,000 gradually turned into support over time, which he interprets as accumulation.
Seasonally, the note says early August marks the end of the summer lull and the return of stronger seasonal conditions, matching the current breakout window.
The article also cites Macro Tourist, saying 1-year 25-delta call skew in gold is at its lowest level since before the pandemic, suggesting almost nobody is paying for right-tail risk.
Technical picture: back above the 50-day average and the 200-day EMA
Technical analysis is a major part of the thesis. 0xKyle says the 50-day moving average has been a key level throughout the bull market of recent years, with gold often testing it before resuming its climb.
He writes that on Jan. 26, gold dropped sharply from $5,500 to $4,400, then bounced from the 50-day moving average and resumed its bull trend. After the Iran war began, gold closed below the 50-day average and stayed there, turning that line into resistance.
Now, he says, the price has reclaimed that level. The simple descending trend line shown in the chart has also been broken.
The note also references a widely watched rule around the 200-day moving average and says gold has now moved back above the 200-day EMA. 0xKyle adds that RSI on higher timeframes, including the weekly chart, is one of the stronger signals he watches. Gold’s weekly RSI spent several weeks near oversold territory, and he says earlier visits to that area were followed by fresh uptrends.
From there, he describes the structure as very clean. Gold has effectively broken back above its EMA stack, and short-term EMAs are crossing higher as well, with the 10 EMA moving above the 21 EMA.
Near-term sell signal and the pullback zone to watch
Despite the broader bullish setup, 0xKyle flags a short-term warning. He says gold has triggered a sell signal on his 20/3 Bollinger Band setup, defined as a 20-day EMA with 3 standard deviations. In his words, that signal almost always means sell.
Because of that, he expects a pullback in the short run and says he would build a larger position into weakness. He adds that gold can be traded in larger size because its intraday moves are usually not as violent as stocks that can swing 10% in a session.
- Buy-limit area: $4,341 to $4,191, around the daily 50 EMA
- Trade invalidation: roughly $4,170
- If gold closes below $4,170: that would point back to range-bound trading
The article ends with the handle @0xkyle__.