Gold has slipped below its 200-day moving average for the first time since October 2023, a break many traders read as a sign that long-term upside momentum has weakened. Prices are now trading below $4,300 per ounce. In technical terms, that move can signal that a broader reversal is taking shape rather than a routine pullback.
The decline comes after an enormous rally. Gold climbed from below $2,000 per ounce in October 2023 to a record $5,600 in January, a gain of nearly 200%. A large part of that move was tied to the “debasement trade,” the view that heavy government spending, rising debt, and loose monetary policy would erode fiat purchasing power and lift demand for scarce stores of value such as gold.
Strong US jobs data shifts rate expectations
Gold is now down more than 20% from its all-time high, placing it in bear market territory. The latest wave of weakness followed a stronger-than-expected US jobs report on Friday, which led markets to price in a higher chance of Federal Reserve tightening. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are now assigning a 25-basis-point rate hike in December, which would take the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%.
Silver is facing a similar test. Often treated as a higher-beta version of gold because of its greater volatility, it is now testing support at its own 200-day moving average near $67 per ounce.
Bitcoin-gold ratio rebounds, but remains far below its peak
As gold weakens, the bitcoin-gold ratio has risen 3% in the past 24 hours to 14.72 ounces, meaning one bitcoin can currently buy more gold than it could a day earlier. The move comes as bitcoin recovers toward $63,000. The ratio is often watched as a gauge of bitcoin’s relative strength against gold.
That rebound needs context. The ratio is still roughly 70% below its December 2024 peak near 41 ounces. Last month, it was rejected at its 200-day moving average, and that rejection came before bitcoin fell below $60,000. Even so, the ratio remains above its February lows, leaving bitcoin bulls with a small but visible sign of resilience.
Dollar strength keeps pressure on commodities and crypto
Macro conditions remain tight. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has climbed back above 100, a move that usually acts as a headwind for commodities, gold, and cryptocurrencies. A stronger dollar tightens global financial conditions, reduces liquidity, and raises the cost of dollar-denominated assets for investors outside the United States.
For now, the setup is mixed: gold has broken a major long-term support marker, silver is testing its own, and bitcoin is showing relative improvement only through the ratio against gold. The broader pressure from the dollar and rate expectations has not gone away.