Goldman Sachs expects U.S. core CPI for July to rise 0.19% from the previous month and 2.47% from a year earlier, both slightly below market consensus of 0.2% and 2.5%. For headline CPI, Goldman’s estimate is even softer at 0.05% month over month, versus a 0.1% consensus forecast, based on an earlier retreat in energy prices.
The data is scheduled for release at 8:30 p.m. Taiwan time on Aug. 12. Before publication, Brent crude had already climbed back to $87.90, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield had risen to 4.73%, and Bitcoin was trading at $64,219, down 1.08% over the past 24 hours.
Goldman’s CPI call sits just below consensus
Under Goldman’s forecast, core CPI would recover modestly from June’s flat 0.0% monthly reading to 0.19% in July, while the annual rate would ease from 2.6% to 2.47%. The headline CPI estimate of 0.05% suggests the bank expects the drag from June’s energy decline to continue feeding into the July print.
The piece also points to a complication: the assumption of lower energy prices had started to reverse before the CPI report was released.
June inflation was pulled lower by energy
According to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data cited in the report, headline CPI fell 0.4% in June from the prior month, the biggest monthly drop since April 2020. The annual rate declined from 4.2% in May to 3.5%. Core CPI was unchanged on the month at 0.0% and rose 2.6% from a year earlier.
A breakdown of the data shows where the relief came from. The energy index fell 5.7% in June, making it the largest contributor to the decline in the overall CPI reading. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the drop in energy offset gains in housing and food. That followed earlier increases of 10.9% in March, 3.8% in April, and 3.9% in May.
So the earlier energy pullback was relative to a sharp run-up in the previous three months. On a 12-month basis, the energy index was still up 15.7%.
Oil prices reversed within a week
On Aug. 10, oil prices jumped about 5% in a single day. WTI settled at $82.13 and Brent at $87.72. The report said the move was triggered by stalled talks between the U.S. and Iran over reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Only a week earlier, oil had fallen more than 7% after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC that an agreement could be reached soon. The market’s pricing of the route swung with each turn in the negotiations.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said on Aug. 10, 2026: 「As long as the U.S. naval blockade remains, the conditions necessary to reopen the Strait of Hormuz do not exist.」
The article also said Donald Trump told Axios on Aug. 9 that the U.S. was only in 「semi-negotiation」 and suggested Washington would rely on a naval blockade, rather than another round of airstrikes, to apply pressure. He had canceled one planned strike on Iran on Aug. 1 to leave room for talks, but both sides later hardened their positions.
Strategic oil reserves are near multi-decade lows
The report added that the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen below 300 million barrels, the lowest level since January 1983. In that reading, one of the government’s traditional tools for calming oil prices has much less room than before.
Goldman also attached a condition to its inflation view: if oil-market disruptions and higher crude prices last longer than expected, inflation risks would skew upward. Based on price action in August, that caveat is now back in focus.
What markets are watching now
Consensus for the July release stands at 0.2% month over month and 2.5% year over year for core CPI. Goldman’s corresponding estimates are 0.19% and 2.47%, while headline CPI is seen rising 0.05% on the month.
The article also notes that the latest rebound in oil prices is more likely to affect the next inflation report than this one. July CPI still reflects the low base created by June’s 5.7% monthly drop in energy, while Brent’s roughly 5% one-day jump came on Aug. 10. That means the impact is more likely to appear in August CPI, which will be released in September.