Author: Jianwei Zhizhu Zatan
Goldman Sachs held its third Global Metals & Mining Conference in London, UK, on Oct. 21, 2026. Executives from 10 mining companies used the event to outline a common view on copper: expected supply growth has not shown up, regional inventories have become more uneven, and the industry is facing a tougher path to add new production.
The conference summary said the market had expected 3 million tonnes of copper mine supply growth in 2025-2026, but only about 700,000 tonnes has been delivered. Concentrate supply is also about 300,000 tonnes below 2024 levels. Tariff-driven stockpiling has pulled more than 1.5 million tonnes of copper into the US, tightening inventories in other regions and making regional balance more important. Rising weather and labor risks in Chile, along with the ramp-up pace at mines including Grasberg in 2027-2028, were cited as key variables for future supply.
Executives repeatedly pointed to lower grades, underinvestment, 15-20 year development timelines and complex permitting as structural constraints. Greenfield projects were described as carrying capital intensity above $30,000 per tonne, making delivery more expensive and execution riskier. Partnerships and joint ventures are increasingly the preferred route for growth. The conference summary cited potential annual additions of about 175,000 tonnes from a QB-Collahuasi combination and about 120,000 tonnes from Los Bronces-Andina. Capital recycling is also becoming more systematic, through infrastructure monetization, metal streaming and sales of non-core assets. Copper, in that context, is increasingly being treated as a strategic input, with resource security affecting inventory placement, access to capital and supply-chain choices. The broad conclusion from the event was simple: current tightness in copper is being driven more by scarce and underdelivered supply than by a sharp acceleration in end demand.
First Quantum: Cobre Panamá remains central to the growth story
First Quantum’s session with CEO Tristan Pascall focused on Cobre Panamá, its Zambian operations and the Taca Taca project. The company said it is working to resolve the situation in Panama, keep momentum in Zambia and position its balance sheet and project pipeline for the next phase of copper growth.
At Cobre Panamá, ore stockpile processing is under way. Management said recent government milestones and the ministerial committee process represent concrete progress toward a durable solution, though no formal agreement has been reached. The company described recent announcements on the mine as positive and in line with expectations. According to management, the government’s direction points to a restart so environmental issues can be addressed and an orderly closure can be carried out over decades. About 3,000 people remain on site, and the company is processing previously mined stockpiles.
Once a decision is made, management said a potential restart could reach about 85%-90% of steady-state output within six to nine months, with the final ramp still requiring additional optimization. Core processing assets were described as being in good condition. Current work is focused on the remaining regrind and cleaner circuits, flotation columns and Jameson cells, while rebuilding the skilled workforce is also seen as important for the ramp.
Taca Taca remains the company’s main growth option outside the existing portfolio. First Quantum is advancing permitting, the RIGI process and financing work ahead of a final investment decision. Public consultation for the environmental and social impact assessment is scheduled for Nov. 12, and management is targeting a RIGI submission before the July 8, 2027 deadline. Even so, the company wants greater clarity on Cobre Panamá and on balance-sheet capacity before making a decision. It intends to reduce net debt to EBITDA to around 1.0x before developing the project. Financing options under review include project finance, equity partners, streaming and pre-sales. The company is also engaging with the International Finance Corporation to support work tied to possible project financing.
In Zambia, Kansanshi is focused on increasing fresh ore feed and improving grade after the S3 expansion. The 25 million tonne per year S3 circuit is meant to offset lower grades through higher throughput, while operational attention is shifting toward pre-stripping and accessing higher-grade South East Dome ore. Management said some higher-grade material has started to come through, but stressed the need to sustain that trend. At Sentinel, the focus remains on mine output, stripping and grade, with management also seeing opportunities to extend mine life. More detail on output and grade is expected in the company’s annual outlook at the end of January or early February.
Beyond Taca Taca, La Granija remains at an early permitting stage, with First Quantum holding 55% and Rio Tinto 45%. Haquira in Peru was described as another option in the pipeline. Management said that if the Panama situation develops well, the company should be able over the next year to move Taca Taca through the RIGI and ESIA processes and closer to a project decision.
Lundin Mining: Vicuna still targets approval by year-end
Lundin Mining’s discussion with CEO Jack Lundin centered on maximizing returns from the existing business, moving Vicuna forward and maintaining shareholder distributions. Before Vicuna, the company’s strategy is built around getting more out of current operations through contractor insourcing, leach optimization and better recoveries. Management said copper and Latin America remain the portfolio focus. It also said the company has enough organic growth without further acquisitions, though it would stay opportunistic if outside opportunities appear.
Operational consistency was a major theme. Management pointed to achievable targets, disciplined planning and a culture built around accountability, continuous improvement and cutting unnecessary bureaucracy. It said years of steady delivery have given the company the confidence and maturity to pursue brownfield growth while keeping operating discipline. Weather disruptions at Caserones, following the 2023 acquisition, tested that resilience for longer than expected internally. The company said backup power kept critical infrastructure running, no serious safety incidents occurred during the storms, and operations later returned to nameplate capacity. Lessons from outages and wind damage to transmission lines are now being applied to planning for Vicuna phase one.
Vicuna phase one still targets approval by the end of 2026, which could allow construction to begin in early 2027. Capital spending remains the market’s main concern. The joint venture is completing the remaining work on a bottom-up capital estimate, and progress and execution plans are under shareholder review ahead of a targeted year-end final investment decision. Management acknowledged that the estimate will include inflation, Argentina-related uplifts and normal engineering maturation, but it did not provide a revised capex figure. The article said phase one capex is expected to rise to about $8.5 billion, from Lundin’s estimate of about $7 billion and BHP’s $7 billion-$8 billion range.
Management said Caserones, about 40 kilometers from Vicuna at 4,500 meters altitude, offers relevant experience for assumptions around equipment and labor productivity at high elevation. It also said Vicuna’s position as an early mover among major projects should help with access to skilled labor, though hiring and workforce constraints remain an industry issue.
On brownfield growth, Candelaria’s underground ore output could rise from about 14,000 tonnes per day to about 22,000 tonnes per day through mine development, insourcing, faster advance rates and lower cost per meter. At Caserones, primary sulfide leaching is being tested and could lift total cathode copper output from about 25,000 tonnes per year to about 40,000 tonnes per year. An Angelica resource update is expected in the first half of 2027 and could provide higher-grade oxide material for leaching. At Chapada, an additional ball mill is under construction and is expected to improve recoveries by about 5 percentage points while supporting later development of the Sauva satellite deposit, around 15 kilometers from Chapada.
Lundin also discussed Los Helados, where it owns 31% of the satellite deposit located about 15-20 kilometers from Caserones. Work with NGEx Minerals is weighing open pit versus underground mining and standalone development versus use of Caserones infrastructure. A path could be chosen in the coming months. A resource update and a study on possible development routes are expected in the first half of 2027.
On shareholder returns, an additional opportunistic buyback of about $100 million this year will lift total buybacks to about $250 million from about $150 million. Base annual distributions, including dividends and buybacks, remain about $220 million, with room for further opportunistic returns.
Teck Resources: project scarcity, not funding, is the bigger supply constraint
Teck Resources’ session with CEO Jonathan Price focused on progress at QB, the proposed Anglo-Teck combination and the rising importance of metal security. Management said it remains constructive on copper and argued that the main limit on supply growth is not funding but the lack of attractive, development-ready projects. Underinvestment in exploration, permitting challenges and rising capital intensity were all cited as reasons the industry is struggling to close a potential supply gap.
In specialty metals, management said customers are increasingly willing to accept less efficient supply chains in exchange for security. Technology and defense buyers are exploring long-term contracts, partnerships and buyer clubs for small but essential metals such as germanium, indium and antimony. Teck also said security considerations are likely to support Western processing investment even with weak smelting economics and global overcapacity. The Trail smelter is drawing interest from the Canadian and US governments, including possible support for germanium and gallium capacity, though scarce technical expertise remains a constraint beyond funding.
On the proposed Anglo-Teck combination, management highlighted a combined copper production base of about 1.2 million tonnes per year and promised synergies of $800 million. Integration planning is under way. China remains the only outstanding regulatory approval, and management said it still expects clearance no later than the first quarter of 2027. The transaction could close within weeks after approval. Growth options include adding about 175,000 tonnes per year through a QB-Collahuasi combination and about 120,000 tonnes per year through Los Bronces-Andina, on top of the 1.2 million tonne base, along with debottlenecking and a broader project pipeline.
At QB, management said operating performance improved steadily through 2026 and that there have been no tailings-related constraints over the past 12 months. A sixth rock lift is under construction and is expected to provide enough room for tailings storage through 2028, buying time to complete the sand dam in parallel. Sand deposition rates are improving, and throughput and recovery optimization continues as the plant processes transitional ore. Heavy snow and strong winds caused power interruptions in the third quarter, but management said the mine and plant were running well during a recent site visit.
On resilience and growth, Highland Valley Copper is targeting mine life extension through 2046, with average production of about 132,000 tonnes per year. The pipeline also includes nearer-term projects such as Zafranal and San Nicolas, and longer-dated options including NuevaUnion, Galore Creek, Schaft Creek and NewRange. Management said stronger climate resilience needs to be built structurally into asset design and mine planning rather than treated as an unforeseeable event. Measures mentioned included relocating vulnerable infrastructure and repositioning equipment ahead of adverse weather.
Antofagasta: aiming for copper output about 30% above 2024 by decade-end
Antofagasta’s discussion with CEO Ivan Arriagada stayed focused on organic growth at Centinela and Los Pelambres. The company is targeting copper production of about 860,000 tonnes by the end of the decade, roughly 30% above 2024. Management said it is confident in that target, which implies about 200,000 tonnes of incremental copper. Roughly two-thirds is expected to come from Centinela’s second concentrator and one-third from higher grades at Los Pelambres.
Centinela is about 90% complete. Commissioning is expected in 2027, full ramp-up in 2028 and 2029 as the first full year at nameplate capacity. Complementary projects at Los Pelambres are more than 70% complete. Beyond current construction, Antofagasta is evaluating brownfield growth across the portfolio, including a further expansion of the Centinela concentrator and an Antucoya-Cachorro integration.
At Los Pelambres, management said there could be long-term synergies with Glencore’s neighboring El Pachon project, especially as Chile-Argentina mining cooperation develops, though that is outside the current core strategy. Capital allocation remains balanced. The 35% minimum payout ratio is unchanged, and management said there is room for higher distributions once the current investment cycle ends. M&A remains selective, with the organic pipeline setting the return hurdle and outside opportunities needing to show clear synergies.
On the growth path, higher-grade phase 11 ore at Los Pelambres started arriving in the fourth quarter of 2026, and management expects more stable grade and production conditions from 2027 to 2029. Recent labor talks at Centinela have concluded, and no further negotiations are expected there in 2027.
For the next stage of brownfield growth, studies at Centinela are evaluating an expansion of the existing concentrator from about 107,000 tonnes per day to about 140,000 tonnes per day, or an expansion of the new concentrator from about 95,000 tonnes per day to 150,000 tonnes per day under the C2E option. Even so, the immediate priority remains finishing the current build and ramp. Pre-stripping at Polo Sur is also under way, with higher-grade oxide feed expected by the end of 2026. At Los Pelambres, the focus is on completing desalination and concentrate pipeline projects and securing a mine life extension permit, which management expects in the first quarter of 2027.
On capital intensity, Antofagasta said sustaining capex should fall once the current investment phase passes. It noted that about $2 billion of spending at Los Pelambres is classified as sustaining capex even though much of it is one-off enabling infrastructure. Group sustaining capex could then normalize to around $1.5 billion. The 35% minimum dividend payout remains in place, though distributions have stayed around 50% during the investment phase, supported by strong metal prices.
Management said the company remains open to outside opportunities with clear synergies and attractive returns, but sees the existing resource base as the main route for growth. It acknowledged potential synergies with Escondida and Zaldivar, but said more value is currently available through executing the standalone strategy, including a water system and the Cuprochlor-T primary sulfide leach project targeted for completion by mid-2028. The company also wants more visibility over the next 12 months on the potential for an Antucoya-Cachorro integration.
Freeport-McMoRan: broader demand drivers and a bigger role for technology
Freeport-McMoRan’s session with CEO Kathleen Quirk focused on the company’s constructive long-term copper view, technology-led growth plans and brownfield expansion within the existing asset base. Management said copper demand growth in the next decade should be more diversified than in the last one, extending beyond China and increasingly driven by electrification, power infrastructure, data center investment and grid modernization.
At the same time, the company said supply growth remains difficult. Many of the projects expected to contribute future output were discovered decades ago, while the pipeline of new world-class discoveries remains limited. Management also stressed copper’s rising strategic importance, saying governments and policymakers are paying more attention to supply security, domestic sourcing and critical mineral supply chains. That combination of broader demand drivers and constrained new supply underpins the company’s long-term constructive view.
Technology-enabled growth remains a major part of the story. Management said leaching and other technology programs are becoming increasingly important sources of future copper output. Leach production is currently running at about 200 million pounds per year, and the company reiterated its target of lifting that to about 800 million pounds by 2030 through better recoveries and processing technology. It also said historical stockpiles contain about 40 billion pounds of copper. The company has narrowed its evaluation to two additive technologies that have shown encouraging results and expects broader rollout to begin over the next few quarters, a step it described as critical to determining the ultimate scale of the opportunity.
Those gains are not reflected in current production guidance, but management continues to view leaching, automation and technology deployment as potentially important long-term contributors. Future production growth, it said, is expected to come mainly from opportunities within Freeport’s existing operations in the US, Indonesia and Chile rather than from large greenfield developments or transformative M&A. Existing assets offer advantages through established infrastructure, operating expertise and permitting frameworks. Capital allocation remains focused on disciplined execution and balance-sheet flexibility.
Ivanhoe: Kamoa-Kakula reset shifts attention to a sustainable long-term path
Ivanhoe Mines used its session with CEO Marna Cloete to discuss the company’s evolution from a junior explorer into a developer and operator of large mining assets, with emphasis on Kamoa-Kakula, Western Forelands and Kipushi. After the 2025 earthquake disruption, management said the focus at Kamoa-Kakula has shifted toward long-term optimization through sustainable mine planning, stockpile development, open-pit opportunities and ore blending, all aimed at building a copper complex producing more than 500,000 tonnes per year.
Management said that since the March 2026 reset, the company has completed extensive hydrology, drilling, grade model and mine planning work. It is reassessing mining sequence across the district, incorporating open-pit opportunities and stockpile development while optimizing ore blending between Kamoa and Kakula. It acknowledged that the ramp may extend into 2028 beyond previous expectations, but reiterated confidence in reaching the long-term target of more than 500,000 tonnes per year. Management said the decisions are being made to maximize the long-term value of a generational asset rather than optimize short-term guidance.
Western Forelands was described as Ivanhoe’s next major growth platform. The company highlighted ongoing infill drilling and early development work there, saying the area can benefit from Kamoa-Kakula infrastructure and operating experience. Because the resource is open-pit in nature, management expects development to be simpler than for underground operations. It discussed a three- to five-year horizon for meaningful development and early production. Financing options are also broader now than during the original Kamoa-Kakula build, including local bank facilities, sovereign-backed funding and strategic partnerships.
Kipushi was described as a major success. Management said it has become the world’s third-largest zinc producer and that output has exceeded conservative initial expectations. Beyond zinc, Ivanhoe and Gecamines are evaluating opportunities to recover germanium and gallium from concentrate. More broadly, management said it remains constructive on copper because large deposits are still hard to find, often sit in challenging jurisdictions and require increasingly complex execution and financing to develop. It also pointed to sulfuric acid prices above about $1,000 per tonne as a current tailwind, while expecting prices to normalize over time.
Rio Tinto: stronger foundations, deeper project pipeline
Rio Tinto’s session with CEO Simon Trott marked his second appearance in the role after one year that included a reset at the December capital markets day, a lithium trip to Argentina, discussions with Glencore, the CBA aluminum asset acquisition in Brazil with Chalco, first ore from Simandou and a near tripling of cost-cutting targets. Management’s message was that the foundations have been strengthened and the focus is now on turning that into growth.
The company said it is relying on good operating assets, differentiated project capability and a deep pipeline across four priority commodities: iron ore, aluminum, lithium and copper. It also wants to recycle capital from assets the market does not fully value. Management said about 85% of EBITDA comes from tier-one assets, so operating improvements flow directly to shareholders. Capital allocation is unchanged, with proceeds from disposals treated like any other cash flow and directed toward shareholder returns, growth and the balance sheet.
On cost reduction, the target has been raised from about $650 million to an annualized run rate of $1.8 billion by the end of 2026, equal to about 5% of a $35 billion cost base. Early gains came from deciding which projects to continue, but management said it now sees more repeatable upside. Group-wide initiatives are being tracked, assets are being benchmarked against each other and three- to five-year plans are being folded into the 2027 planning cycle. Structurally, the company is moving away from a centralized model. About 20% of senior leadership roles have been removed, and decision-making and accountability are being pushed back to mines and processing plants. Management said the core of the program is reducing inefficiency rather than simply cutting costs, with 80 initiatives focused on delivering growth.
On portfolio simplification and capital recycling, Rio Tinto said it is on track to reach a $5 billion simplification target by year-end. More than $2 billion was already announced in the third-quarter operating review, though completion remains subject to conditions. The Dampier desalination plant transaction in the third quarter was presented as a template: assets that do not need to sit on the balance sheet, retained access rights for what is needed, value arbitrage to lower-cost capital owners and cooperation with traditional owners in the Pilbara. The same logic is being applied to infrastructure across the portfolio, including Pilbara power, Kemano and Canadian rail. Borates is progressing smoothly, while RTIT is more complex because it needs structural work and is affected by weaker mineral sands markets. Management said this review will run every year, implying the plan could extend beyond $10 billion.
On M&A discipline and partnerships, management said value was the common thread in both the Glencore and CBA processes. In Glencore’s case, Rio tested multiple investment theses and concluded the value was not there, so it chose not to bid. CBA, by contrast, was described as a bolt-on integrated bauxite and aluminum deal in a favorable jurisdiction, done with Chalco. Rio has more than 20 operating joint ventures, and management said partnerships are a core delivery model. Simandou was cited as a world-class alliance now ramping toward an annualized rate of about 10 million tonnes per year. The relationship with Chalco was described as strong, with work under way to identify joint opportunities.
On copper, Rio said it is on a path toward 1 million tonnes per year. From a current base of about 850,000 tonnes, near-term growth is being driven by the continued ramp at Oyu Tolgoi, where third-quarter annualized output exceeded 450,000 tonnes, lifting group copper growth by about 30%, along with opportunities at Kennecott. The next phase is centered on the Americas, including Resolution, projects in Chile and Argentina and a set of earlier-stage options. At Resolution, the company is adding drill rigs and prioritizing access drives into the orebody to define a development path, applying block-caving experience from Oyu Tolgoi. Management said the wider portfolio, including La Granja, Winu, La Comita, San Antonio and Nuevo Cobre, is undervalued by the market and, combined with Rio’s project capability and balance sheet, should position the copper business well for the 2030s.
In aluminum and lithium, Rio said lithium projects are progressing toward about 200,000 tonnes of capacity by 2028, with assets expected to sit at the low end of the cost curve once operating and with attractive capital intensity. Canadian assets are still being configured, while Argentina and Chile offer options beyond the 200,000-tonne level. In aluminum, management said demand growth for aluminum and copper should be similar by the mid-2030s, but supply conditions have changed because of China’s capacity cap and the diversion of spare power toward data centers. It said Canadian and Saguenay assets cannot be replicated, Pacific Aluminium’s repowering is progressing well, and CBA-style bolt-ons plus Australian bauxite expansion form the route ahead.
Glencore: marketing strength, copper recovery and portfolio review
Glencore’s discussion with CEO Gary Nagle was framed around the strategic value of its marketing franchise, the recovery in copper and a disciplined approach to growth. Management said rising geopolitical fragmentation, resource security initiatives and greater government intervention are creating a more supportive backdrop for the marketing business. It remains constructive on copper, saying supply is struggling to keep up with growing demand, while also acknowledging that substitution, innovation and demand destruction will eventually help balance the market.
Management also said utilities are paying more attention to fuel and geographic diversification after two global energy crises in the past four years, supporting interest in keeping coal-fired generation running for longer. Following the company’s recent listing on the Australian Securities Exchange, Glencore said the response from Australian investors has been positive, offering exposure to coal, marketing and copper growth as an alternative to large iron ore names. Management said the timing was favorable, there was no resistance to coal and investors were actively seeking exposure. One week after listing, about 1% of registered shares had already migrated to Australia, which management said could support inclusion in the ASX 200 in the near term and the ASX 100 later on.
On the marketing model, management said the business is primarily about physical logistics, blending, scale and optimization rather than just trading. It said the franchise is supported by $1.5 billion-$2.0 billion of “no-regrets” earnings power, with any disruption creating incremental upside. Those disruptions can include smaller weather, transport and operating events, not only major geopolitical shocks. The company highlighted Section 232-driven copper stockpiling, persistently weak copper and zinc treatment charges, disruptions in aluminum markets and rising government intervention in resource markets as key opportunities. Glencore recently raised the midpoint of its medium-term marketing EBIT guidance to about $3.5 billion, with a range of $2.8 billion-$4.2 billion, from $2.3 billion-$3.5 billion previously.
On metal security and Chinese buying power, management said government involvement is increasing across the value chain, from the Export-Import Bank of Korea and the US Export-Import Bank/DFC Project Vault to European strategic stockpile initiatives. It said resource security has become a bipartisan priority, increasing the strategic relevance of mining assets and the frequency of market disruptions that benefit the marketing business. Asked about coordinated Chinese iron ore buying through CMRG, management said it was not surprising and pointed to long-standing collective bargaining in copper smelter terms and ferrochrome. It also questioned the durability of copper treatment charge benchmarks, arguing that lower contracted volumes are gradually reducing their relevance until the benchmark disappears as spot and contract-tenor spreads widen, which it said is what the market is seeing now.
On copper recovery and growth, management described the path back to about 1 million tonnes of copper by 2028 as a recovery in the existing business rather than conventional growth. KCC, with potential above 300,000 tonnes, and Collahuasi are expected to drive most of the increase. Confidence in Collahuasi has improved after management changes, access to higher-grade fresh ore from Rosario and the restart of leaching. The target is to return to full operations by the end of 2027. Discussions around a potential QB-Collahuasi combination remain focused on governance, capital allocation and value sharing rather than on whether synergies exist. Glencore said standalone expansion remains a credible alternative.
El Pachon remains a key part of the company’s long-term ambition of about 1.6 million tonnes by 2035. Management described a potential multi-stage development above 700,000 tonnes per year, made up of two 360,000-tonne phases, possibly under a syndicate structure. Strategic partners would need to bring technical capability to build greenfield projects. Potential partnerships, including with neighboring operations such as Los Pelambres, are still being considered. MARA could support a final investment decision in the fourth quarter of 2027 after near-term RIGI approval and permitting, while first production at Alumbrera is now expected in the second half of 2027, earlier than the previous first-half 2028 timeline.
On portfolio optimization and capital release, the Orion CMC stake in the company’s DRC copper assets is progressing and could see an outcome by late 2026 or early 2027. Kazzinc remains under review, with a decision possible in the next 30-60 days, though management said valuation and terms, not simplification for its own sake, will drive the outcome because the asset still generates cash. Bunge is ultimately expected to exit, but management said additional value could still be realized before disposal and mentioned interest from strategic buyers including sovereign wealth funds that may pay a premium for the roughly 17% stake.
Vale: copper growth centered on Carajas brownfield options
Vale’s session with CEO Gustavo Pimenta focused on organic copper growth, improving competitiveness in nickel and iron ore, and maintaining capital discipline while preserving shareholder returns. Management said the biggest opportunity lies in developing the company’s existing Brazilian resource base, especially in Carajas, where brownfield projects can use existing infrastructure and require much less capital than greenfield alternatives. Vale remains open to selective partnerships and what it called smart M&A, but said direct copper acquisitions look expensive relative to its internal pipeline.
On copper, Vale said it continues to prioritize organic growth. Several projects are under development, with Bacaba and Salobo coarse particle flotation already under construction. Management highlighted Alemao as an important follow-on project and said it is optimistic on permitting because the pipeline is mainly brownfield in nature and because the company is working to reduce environmental footprint. It said the pipeline benefits from existing infrastructure and much lower capital intensity than typical greenfield development, which should allow Vale to pursue growth without compromising shareholder returns.
In base metals strategy, management said there is significant value in retaining and expanding Vale’s copper exposure rather than selling the business. An IPO or third-party financing could be used as funding tools if needed, but they are not strategic goals. Vale also said nickel economics have improved materially through cost cuts, by-product credits and additional own-feed volumes from recent projects. On M&A, the company said it is open to deals that can share infrastructure or optimize existing capacity, but direct copper acquisitions are less attractive than developing its own portfolio.
In iron ore, Capanema and Vargem Grande are ramping up, while the recently launched S11D+20 project is expected to add capacity and help offset depletion elsewhere in the Northern System. Management said there is more potential to extract value from existing infrastructure in northern Brazil, subject to permitting and market conditions. As seaborne ore blends deteriorate more broadly, Vale said its lower-alumina, higher-grade product mix should become increasingly valuable. India was also highlighted as a growing market where the company can benefit through global blending capability.
On freight, Vale said greater use of long-term freight contracts and marine fuel hedging has left it largely insulated from the recent rise in Brazil-China spot freight rates, helping ease the structural freight disadvantage relative to Australian producers. Under current market conditions, only a relatively small share of Vale’s own output was described as being near the margin of profitability. Management reiterated a value-over-volume approach rather than selling marginal tonnes at a loss.
On capital allocation, management said shareholder returns remain a key priority and that both dividends and buybacks should continue to feature in the framework. At the same time, Vale believes the relatively low capital intensity of its organic copper pipeline can be absorbed within the existing balance sheet. Asked about special distributions, Pimenta said they are unlikely under current market conditions, though flexibility remains as markets and the balance sheet evolve.
Anglo American: embedded growth options around QB, Collahuasi and Los Bronces
Anglo American’s discussion with CEO Duncan Wanblad focused on copper growth through existing assets, brownfield options and neighboring operations. Management said the company sees embedded growth at Los Bronces and Collahuasi and, once the proposed combination with Teck is completed, through the ramp at QB. Industrial synergies from Los Bronces-Andina and Collahuasi-QB are expected to emerge from the end of this decade into the early 2030s.
On copper fundamentals, management remained constructive, citing resource scarcity, lower grades, permitting complexity and rising capital intensity. Higher prices are necessary, it said, but not sufficient on their own to unlock supply. The only major advances the industry has made in improving output were described as ultra-class haul trucks and leaching. Looking ahead, Anglo said further progress in leaching technology and AI could unlock more supply, but neither is expected to materially change the supply outlook over the next five to 10 years.
Portfolio transformation is still under way. Management said it remains optimistic about completing the metallurgical coal disposal before the first quarter of 2027 and hopes for an outcome in nickel later this year or early next year after re-engaging with the European Commission. On diamonds, detailed negotiations remain delicate, but management said it is optimistic a contract can be signed by year-end and that completion mechanics can move forward in 2027 if the process stays on track. On the proposed AngloTeck combination, management said engagement with China remains constructive and that completion is still expected within the previously indicated 12-18 month window, before March 2027.
At Collahuasi, operations have largely returned to fresh ore after additional stripping and a period of reliance on lower-grade, lower-recovery stockpiles. Grades have improved, though snow-related interruptions remain. Crossing faulted benches could make production uneven, but management said that should not be read as a soft downgrade to next year’s recovery profile and does not represent a major issue for the mine’s long-term potential. The existing leach plant is expected to restart this year and contribute a few thousand tonnes, with somewhat more next year but still limited by installed capacity. A larger opportunity could come from Rosario material and stockpiles averaging about 0.6% copper, subject to leachability. That would require new facilities, investment review, permitting, land and water management. Capital intensity would still be meaningful, though lower than for a concentrator.
At Los Bronces-Andina, management expects to submit the permit application for a combined mine plan before year-end. Approval typically takes about three years. Chile’s efforts to streamline permitting could shorten that to two to two and a half years, though management framed that as an upside case rather than the base case. Capturing the full processing benefit would also require the smaller Los Bronces plant to restart after tailings removal at Perez Caldera, which is also expected to take about three years. Faster permitting could therefore shift the critical path to tailings removal. Tailings reprocessing is being evaluated for technical and economic feasibility, with management saying deeper material could offer a larger opportunity and higher grades than near-surface material.
At Quellaveco, the near-term priority is to maintain throughput as grades decline, helping manage the transition toward eventual output of about 250,000 tonnes of copper. On possible water cooperation, management said it is open to commercially attractive infrastructure partnerships but does not see water alone delivering a clear increase in output. Longer-term options discussed included accessing higher-grade material at depth through pit extensions or a possible underground transition, on a planning horizon of about 10 years rather than through a capital-intensive grinding expansion. Encouraging drilling results support the potential for a large-scale underground operation in time, backed by regional satellite sources, though management said the work remains at an early stage.
BHP: brownfield growth, partnerships and capital discipline
BHP’s session with CEO Mike Henry focused on copper growth, disciplined capital allocation and operational excellence. Management said it remains strongly constructive on copper, arguing that supply growth will struggle to keep up with demand because of lower grades, rising capital intensity and permitting complexity. The company’s growth strategy is centered on brownfield expansion at existing assets, especially Escondida, Spence and Olympic Dam, along with partnerships and joint ventures that can unlock value.
On copper growth, management pointed to opportunities at Escondida through ore hardness improvements and concentrator optimization, at Spence through the Spence Growth Option and possible synergies with Sierra Gorda, and at Olympic Dam through underground expansion and leaching technology. It also stressed the importance of partnerships, citing the Resolution copper project with Rio Tinto and the memorandum of understanding with Glencore on Spence-Sierra Gorda. Those structures are intended to spread risk, share capital and accelerate development.
On capital allocation, BHP said it is actively seeking to recycle capital from non-core assets or infrastructure. Examples included the Antamina silver stream agreement, worth about $500 million, and the Pilbara power transaction, which monetizes power infrastructure. Management said these moves are designed to unlock value, fund growth projects and preserve balance-sheet strength. The company reiterated a 35% minimum dividend payout ratio, while also saying distributions can run above that level during investment phases.
On operational excellence and simplification, BHP said it is pushing ahead with plans to reduce management layers, improve decision-making efficiency and lower costs. Management said meaningful value can be unlocked through better equipment utilization and lower maintenance costs without requiring a large increase in capital spending.
Conference takeaway: supply constraints explain more of today’s copper tightness than demand acceleration
Across all 10 sessions, the long-term message on copper was broadly aligned. New supply is proving harder to deliver than expected, development timelines remain long, permitting is difficult and capital intensity is rising. That leaves fewer sources of near-term supply that can be brought on quickly.
Companies are responding by leaning more heavily on brownfield expansions, neighboring-asset synergies, joint ventures, infrastructure monetization and streaming structures. Resource security is no longer just a policy discussion. Based on the comments at the conference, it is already influencing where inventories sit, how capital is raised and how supply chains are being built.