Goldman Sachs lifted its price target on Coinbase Global to $196 from $173. But the bump came after the stock had already ripped higher for five straight sessions, up 28% in that run. Coinbase finished Tuesday at $187.16, a 4.3% gain, then slipped back to $182.43 by midday Wednesday. That left roughly 7.4% upside to Goldman’s new target.
Using the same setup, Goldman analyst James Yaro kept a Buy rating on Robinhood and left his target price at $124. Robinhood was trading at $109.92 at the time, or 12.8% under that mark.
The backdrop was anything but quiet. Bitcoin hit $80,698 intraday on Tuesday, its first trip back above $80,000 since mid-May. By Wednesday it had eased to about $77,900, though it was still up 19.9% on the week. Crypto-linked stocks tracked Bitcoin, and Goldman’s higher target landed right into that move. The response split fast. Some read it as Wall Street treating crypto equities more seriously. Others saw analysts just moving numbers after the chart already moved.
Old criticism returns: price targets move after the stock moves
Financial content creator Charan Dangeti summed up the complaint this way: “The problem is mostly that analysts just change target prices by following the stock price” ("The problem is mostly that analysts just change target prices by following the stock price."). He argued that when a stock drops, targets get cut, and when it rebounds, targets get pushed up again. He pointed to Citi’s target change on Micron as an example, saying the target was lowered after the stock fell 10%, then raised again once the trend turned.
Dangeti added: “That’s the issue with these target prices. I think there’s bias in them, and I don’t think it’s the most honest approach” ("That’s the issue with these target prices. I think there’s bias in them, and I don’t think it’s the most honest approach."). He is a paid creator partner for the simulated trading app GameStock.
And he was not talking only about Coinbase. Dangeti pointed to another valuation he said he did not trust: “UBS’s James also once said SpaceX is worth $800” ("UBS’s James also once said SpaceX is worth $800."). His point was simple. A number can look great on paper. That does not mean institutions will actually put money to work there.
Coinbase’s current spot leaves plenty of room for that doubt. The stock is still about 54% below its 52-week high of $402.16. So yes, Goldman’s $196 target sounds supportive. It is still far below the old peak.
Wall Street is split too. Bernstein has the highest target at $330. Mizuho cut its target to $155 from $200 in early August, and that figure now sits below the market price. BTIG lowered its target because trading volume was weak, while Benchmark also moved lower after Coinbase’s second-quarter results missed expectations. In that quarter, total crypto spot volume across the market dropped 25% from the prior quarter.
So Coinbase is stuck between two stories. Price moved first. Longer-term trading activity still has not come back enough to match it.
Goldman’s case goes beyond spot volumes
Yaro’s Buy rating is not just a call that Bitcoin keeps running. Goldman’s view is closer to careful optimism: structural growth in brokerage and prediction markets is still there, crypto trading still has upside optionality, regulation is advancing, and the company is still keeping costs under control.
That fits Coinbase’s changing business mix. When spot activity cools off, the older model centered on commissions from Bitcoin trading looks vulnerable. Derivatives, prediction markets, tokenized stocks, and perpetual contracts can still bring in fee revenue even when spot markets go flat. Robinhood falls into the same bucket for similar reasons. New business lines, especially derivatives and prediction markets, are now being written into the growth case instead of being treated only as a retail on-ramp for crypto trading.
Andy Duenas, director at Cap V Financial Services, put that idea more bluntly on the podcast On The Margin: “The second version of the crypto story is taking it seriously” ("The second version of the crypto story is taking it seriously."). He added, “This will be the future of finance. It will be embedded in large financial institutions” ("This will be the future of finance. It will be embedded in large financial institutions.").
That matters more here because Goldman, the firm raising the target, is also expanding its own crypto business. So the research note has another angle. The bank is not talking from far away.
Duenas also pointed to a more retail-facing use case: “We have a client that partnered with Coinbase to launch the first mortgages backed by crypto assets. Because you’re seeing more and more younger people with their assets concentrated in crypto. So how do they use those assets to buy their first home?” ("We have a client that partnered with Coinbase to launch the first mortgages backed by crypto assets. Because you’re seeing more and more younger people with their assets concentrated in crypto. So how do they use those assets to buy their first home?").
The implication goes well past exchange trading. The next part of this story is that crypto may be treated not just as something traded on an exchange, but as an asset that can be pledged, placed on balance sheets, and woven into mainstream credit. Duenas brought it back to trust: “When you’re talking about money, the core issue is building trust. So our most important job is to make the market believe crypto is a usable product” ("When you’re talking about money, the core issue is building trust. So our most important job is to make the market believe crypto is a usable product.").
And trust is exactly where the market still looks shaky. Prices are up. Targets followed. But U.S. institutional buying signals have not turned clearly stronger.
Coinbase premium flips, but U.S. demand still looks unsettled
The Coinbase Bitcoin premium has long been used as a gauge for U.S. demand. A positive premium is usually read as a sign U.S. investors will pay more than offshore markets. A negative premium usually means U.S. buying is missing and rallies are being led by overseas money.
Niels, co-founder of STABL Agency, wrote on X early Tuesday: “Coinbase’s Bitcoin premium briefly turned green, but it didn’t hold and has already gone back negative, showing U.S. institutional buying is still weak. Bitcoin is moving, but the big money still doesn’t look fully convinced” ("Coinbase’s Bitcoin premium briefly turned green, but it didn’t hold and has already gone back negative, showing U.S. institutional buying is still weak. Bitcoin is moving, but the big money still doesn’t look fully convinced."). That post came just as Bitcoin had touched $80,698.
Six hours later, the very same metric got a different reading. Trader Crypto Jargon posted: “Coinbase’s Bitcoin premium just turned positive after being negative for more than three straight months. When the premium stays negative for months, it shows U.S. demand is dead and rebounds are being driven by overseas money, which is fragile. Once it turns positive, real buying has returned” ("Coinbase’s Bitcoin premium just turned positive after being negative for more than three straight months. When the premium stays negative for months, it shows U.S. demand is dead and rebounds are being driven by overseas money, which is fragile. Once it turns positive, real buying has returned.").
Two takes. Same signal. Same day. That says plenty on its own. Institutional money still looks undecided, and there is not much support yet for a clean call that U.S. demand is back.
On-chain data did not do Coinbase many favors either. CryptoQuant contributor CW wrote on Aug. 20: “Coinbase shows net Bitcoin selling. But Binance and OKX are still net buyers” ("Coinbase shows net Bitcoin selling. But Binance and OKX are still net buyers."). In trading-desk language, that suggests offshore exchanges were still taking in demand while the biggest regulated U.S. venue was seeing more distribution.
At the same time, Coinbase’s place in the spot Bitcoin ETF plumbing came back into focus. Creation and redemption flows, custody, and settlement often run through a very small group of regulated gateways. Prices can climb before those concentration risks disappear. Simple as that.
Michael Tanguma, co-founder and chief executive of Bitcoin custody company Onramp, put it bluntly: “Why trust one custodian instead of three? It’s pretty straightforward. We’re still too early, so nobody is doing that right now. Whether it’s Coinbase or yourself, there is single-point-of-failure risk” ("Why trust one custodian instead of three? It’s pretty straightforward. We’re still too early, so nobody is doing that right now. Whether it’s Coinbase or yourself, there is single-point-of-failure risk.").
So Goldman can pitch Coinbase as a gateway to the future of finance, while the market can describe that same company as one chokepoint in the ETF pipeline. Right now, both can be true at once.
Volume has not recovered, even as prices bounce
CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju took a colder view of where things stand: “Newcomers capitulating is the final step of every bear market” ("Newcomers capitulating is the final step of every bear market.").
He also pointed to a tougher mix in the data: Coinbase’s market share has been rising while its premium has stayed negative for a long stretch. In his words, “Weak hands in ETFs and institutions sold the bottom” ("Weak hands in ETFs and institutions sold the bottom."). The point is not that the U.S. channel is inactive. It is that weaker holders sold near the lows, and fresh conviction still has not fully replaced them.
That matches what the second-quarter numbers had already shown. Total crypto spot volume across the market fell 25% quarter over quarter. Coinbase missed expectations, and Benchmark cut its target. BTIG’s reason was even simpler: volume was weak. When Mizuho cut its target to $155, the market was still trying to find a floor. The stock has since climbed back above that level, but the trading slump did not just fix itself.
Outside research adds more color to the same Goldman thesis. Crypto trading volume fell 30% in July and another 21% in August, making it 10 straight months of contraction, longer than the median across the previous five cycles. Volume is also about 75% below the cycle peak. During that same span, total crypto market capitalization has rebounded roughly 21% over the past week.
Look at it through that lens and Goldman is not betting that spot commissions suddenly explode tomorrow. It is betting that if prices and market capitalization stabilize first, volume may turn later. Until then, the valuation has to lean on brokerage, prediction markets, cost discipline, and regulatory progress.
That also helps explain why Goldman was willing to raise its Coinbase target while volume still looks bad. The call is less about a near-term jump in spot fees and more about the view that Coinbase no longer relies only on spot fees to stay alive. Prediction markets, derivatives, and tokenized products are being pitched as revenue streams that can stand apart from Bitcoin sentiment.
Traders, though, are still staring at two simpler signals first: whether Bitcoin can hold around $80,000, and whether the Coinbase premium can turn positive and stay there. So far, neither has given a clean answer.
$196 does not settle the bigger question
Put the numbers side by side and the disagreement gets clearer:
- Goldman Sachs: $196, Buy.
- Bernstein: $330, the highest target cited.
- Mizuho: $155, already below the market price.
- BTIG and Benchmark: lower targets tied to volume and earnings worries.
- Market reality: Coinbase is still about 54% below its $402.16 high.
That is why $196 looks less like a final destination and more like a midpoint shaped by the current rally. The stock jumped 28% in five days, and then the research note added another $23 to the target. It can read like confirmation. It can also read like a late nod to price action that had already happened.
Dangeti’s criticism lands because it hits a familiar sell-side habit: prices move first, targets get revised later, and then those revisions are held up as proof that Wall Street is bullish.
The open question is whether big U.S. institutional buyers have actually returned. The premium flashed positive and then slipped back. Coinbase showed net selling. Offshore venues showed net buying. ETF-linked holders were accused of selling the bottom. Put together, those signals suggest the rally still rests on shaky ground.
Bitcoin can hit $80,000 first. Coinbase can trade back above $180 first. Goldman can print a $196 target first. But if U.S. institutional demand does not follow through, those are still just prices on the screen, not a fully confirmed change in participation.
Duenas gave the long-term version: crypto will move into large financial institutions, become collateral, and enter credit markets, with trust at the center. Tanguma described the current setup in rougher terms: the market is still early, custody is too concentrated, and one provider is a single point of failure. Ki Young Ju framed the cycle in his own way: capitulation by newer participants often marks the last stage of a bear market.
Those three views do not cancel each other out. If anything, they fit together. Goldman’s $196 target looks better read as a statement that crypto equities can still be valued seriously, not as proof that institutions have already come back. A price target can change in a day. Buying flows cannot.