Goldman Sachs said in its Aug. 24 report on the Americas brokers and cryptocurrency sector that it is “cautiously optimistic” on crypto-related names in the second half of the year. The bank said crypto trading fell 30% in July and another 21% in August, marking 10 consecutive months of declines. If the crypto market recovers, the sector could gain additional upside optionality.
In Goldman’s framework, the investment cases are split across three groups. Traditional brokers are tied to a seasonal rebound in September. Prediction markets are linked to structural growth of 1,160% over two years. Crypto names, by contrast, are being watched for a possible reversal as the downcycle approaches historical limits. Goldman said the group is now valued at the 30th percentile of its five-year historical range, leaving the risk-reward profile more attractive than before.
A downcycle longer than the historical median
Goldman said crypto trading volume is down 75% from its peak in the current cycle, and the drawdown has lasted 10 months. That is longer than the four-month median across the previous five cycles. Crypto market capitalization rebounded 21% over the past week. The bank noted that a similar rally appeared in April and May but did not hold. If market cap stays at current levels, however, a turning point in trading volumes may start to form.
Goldman’s prime brokerage survey showed that 35% of institutional investors see regulatory uncertainty as the biggest obstacle to entering crypto markets. Another 32% identified regulatory clarity as the top catalyst for broader institutional adoption.
Regulatory changes remain a key support
The report said the odds of the CLARITY Act passing before the midterm elections continue to fall, but U.S. regulators are still pushing through meaningful changes. Goldman pointed to a recent innovation exemption proposal from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, or SEC. It also said that in 2026, more than 10 additional digital asset companies obtained bank charters from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, bringing the total number of crypto firms inside the federal banking system to more than 15.
Goldman said those regulatory shifts could matter for crypto infrastructure businesses, especially custody, staking and stablecoins. Even so, the bank added that a real acceleration in institutional adoption still depends on legislation moving forward.
Cost cutting has helped protect margins
Crypto companies have already moved to reduce expenses during the downturn. Goldman estimated that the companies in its coverage universe cut costs by about 5% on average in 2026. Measures included layoffs, lower marketing budgets and tighter spending on technology infrastructure.
That discipline has flowed through to profitability. Goldman said the cost reductions lifted operating margins by about 5.8 percentage points, offsetting part of the pressure from weaker revenue. In its view, that gives crypto companies room to maintain positive operating cash flow before top-line growth improves, preserving flexibility for the next cycle.
Four buy-rated names, four different setups
Goldman highlighted four buy-rated stocks in its coverage list, each with a different angle.
- HOOD: Goldman set a $124 target price. It said structural account assets are growing at more than 20% annualized, while the Rothera prediction market exchange entered the industry’s top three in less than two months after launch, contributing about $150 million in annualized revenue.
- IBKR: Goldman set a $114 target price and placed the stock on its U.S. Conviction List. The bank expects account growth to exceed 30% in 2026. It said 85% of new accounts are coming from outside the U.S., while pretax margins above 75% are supporting capital generation.
- FIGR: Goldman set a $43 target price. Its HELOC lending platform posted more than 100% year-over-year growth in July transaction volume. The number of partners rose from 178 in 2025 to 102 in the second quarter of 2026 and is still accelerating.
- COIN: Goldman set a $196 target price. The bank said the company’s crypto derivatives market share has increased by about 8 percentage points since the first quarter of 2024, and subscription and services revenue now accounts for about 40% of total revenue. If the SEC innovation exemption moves ahead, Goldman said COIN’s institutional token-service capability would be a direct beneficiary. The stock is trading at about 28x forward earnings, only at the 5th percentile of its post-listing historical range.
Different catalysts across asset groups
Goldman’s report separates the drivers clearly: traditional brokers are tied to a September seasonal reversal, prediction markets to the election cycle, and crypto names to a mix of market-cap recovery, cost discipline and regulatory reform. The bank’s conclusion is that the sector’s valuation already reflects a substantial amount of pessimism.
The ratings, target prices, earnings forecasts and related judgments cited here are drawn from Goldman Sachs’ Aug. 24, 2026 research report as summarized in the source material, and represent the views of the firm’s analysts rather than investment advice.
Markets carry risk, and investment decisions should be made independently. This article should not be used as a basis for buying or selling any security.