A Goldman Sachs research note, cited by Chaoxiang Research and reported by ChainCatcher, said crypto trading volumes fell 30% in July and 21% in August, extending the decline to 10 straight months. The report said the stretch now runs longer than the median duration across the previous five cycles.
Goldman said trading volume in the current cycle is down 75% from its peak. Over the past week, total crypto market capitalization rebounded 21%. If market value stays around current levels, the bank said, a turning point in trading volume could emerge.
Regulation remains central for institutions
On regulation, the note said 35% of institutional investors see regulatory uncertainty as the biggest obstacle. Another 32% identified regulatory clarity as the top catalyst.
The report also referred to a recent innovation exemption proposal from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, or SEC. It added that by 2026, more than 10 additional digital asset companies had obtained bank charters from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, or OCC, and that more than 15 crypto firms had already been brought into the federal banking system.
Goldman keeps a cautiously optimistic second-half view
Goldman said crypto companies cut average expenses by about 5% in 2026, lifting operating margins by roughly 5.8 percentage points. The bank described its outlook for the second half as cautiously optimistic and said sector valuations sit at the 30th percentile of the past five years.
Among its picks, Goldman recommended COIN with a $196 target, HOOD with a $124 target, IBKR with a $114 target and inclusion on Goldman’s U.S. Conviction List, and FIGR with a $43 target.
The bank also broke the investment case into three groups: traditional brokers tied to an expected September reversal, prediction markets tied to the election cycle, and crypto-linked names tied to three catalysts — a rebound in market capitalization, cost reductions, and regulatory reform.