Goldman Sachs said on July 29 that interest-rate futures were pricing in roughly a one-in-three chance that the Federal Reserve would raise rates at today’s meeting. The bank said that regardless of what the Fed ultimately decides, the outcome would amount to the biggest surprise at a non-cut meeting since 1997. Goldman added that if the Fed does deliver a rate hike, it would mark the biggest meeting-day surprise outside of a rate cut since the central bank began issuing statements to announce changes in the policy rate. The remarks focus on how unusual current market pricing is heading into the decision, with expectations split enough that either result would stand out historically by Goldman’s measure.
Goldman Sachs said on July 29 that interest-rate futures were pricing in roughly a one-in-three chance that the Federal Reserve would raise rates at today’s meeting.
According to Goldman, whatever the Fed ultimately decides, the meeting would rank as the biggest surprise at a non-cut meeting since 1997. If the Fed does raise rates, Goldman said it would be the biggest meeting-day surprise outside of a rate cut since the central bank began issuing statements to announce changes in its policy rate.
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