Goldman Sachs’ economics team said it expects U.S. July inflation data to come in slightly below market forecasts, with core CPI seen rising 0.19% month over month versus a 0.2% consensus estimate, and 2.47% year over year versus 2.5% expected. Headline CPI is projected to rise 0.05% from the previous month, also below the 0.1% consensus, mainly reflecting the earlier pullback in energy prices. Even so, the bank said inflation risks have not fully faded.
Goldman said its forecast is consistent with a 0.26% monthly increase in core PCE for July, with portfolio management and related categories likely contributing meaningfully. Looking ahead, the bank expects monthly core CPI gains to stay around 0.2% in the coming months, while housing inflation continues to cool, tariff-related price pressures ease, and earlier pressure from airline fuel costs on ticket prices fades. The U.S. July CPI report is due at 20:30 Beijing time on Aug. 12. Ahead of the release, the 10-year Treasury yield moved back near 4.70%, while oil rose above $87. Goldman said inflation risks would tilt higher if oil market disruptions and rising crude prices last longer than expected.
Goldman Sachs’ economics team said on Aug. 11 that it expects U.S. core CPI for July to rise 0.19% month over month, slightly below the market consensus of 0.2%. On a yearly basis, the bank expects core CPI to increase 2.47%, also below the 2.5% consensus estimate.
For headline CPI, Goldman projects a 0.05% monthly increase, compared with market expectations for 0.1%. The bank said that mainly reflects the earlier decline in energy prices.
Core PCE implied at 0.26%
Goldman said this forecast would be consistent with a 0.26% month-over-month increase in core PCE for July. It added that portfolio management and related components could account for a relatively large share of the increase.
Monthly core CPI gains seen around 0.2% in coming months
Looking to the next few months, Goldman expects monthly core CPI growth to remain around 0.2%. The bank said housing inflation should continue to slow, the contribution from tariff-related price increases should decline, and earlier pressure from airline fuel costs that pushed up ticket prices should also ease.
Markets await CPI for signals on yields and tech rotation
The U.S. July CPI report is scheduled for release at 20:30 Beijing time on Aug. 12. Markets are waiting for the data to offer the next signal for U.S. Treasury yields and rotation in technology stocks.
Before the CPI release, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield had moved back near 4.70%, while oil prices rose back above $87. Goldman said inflation risks would lean to the upside if oil market disruptions and higher oil prices last longer than expected.
This article was originally published by Bit.Fan. For more cryptocurrency news and market insights, visit www.bit.fan. Disclaimer:
The market information, project data, and third-party content displayed on this platform are for industry information sharing only and do not constitute any form of investment advice or return commitment.
Cryptocurrency trading carries high risks. Users should fully assess their risk tolerance and make independent decisions. All profits, losses, and legal responsibilities are borne by the users themselves.
