Goldman Sachs said in its GOAL monthly asset allocation report published on Sept. 7 that stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data increased market expectations for a September rate hike. August nonfarm payrolls rose by 162,000, the unemployment rate held at 4.1%, and earlier months were revised higher. The bank said market pricing for a September hike has moved from 30% to just above 50%, even though the White House has publicly called for rate cuts.
Goldman said the pro-cyclical rotation seen through the summer is still in place, though it has slowed. Commodities led cross-asset returns over the past three months, with European natural gas and refined products posting some of the strongest gains as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz supported prices. Grains also moved higher, and agricultural commodities broadly stayed firm.
The bank said a persistent “super El Niño” could increase supply risks in specific agricultural markets, especially sugar, and could add to food price inflation. For European natural gas, Goldman said a mild winter would help ease pressure on storage.
Focus shifts to inflation data and central bank decisions
After the payrolls report, Goldman said markets would turn to U.S. producer and consumer price data, along with policy decisions from central banks including the European Central Bank. Goldman economists expect August core CPI and PCE to rise by about 0.2% month on month.
The report said a hike will not happen, but also said uncertainty around the policy path has increased sharply.
Gold rises as real yields climb
Goldman described gold as the most striking anomaly in the current macro setup. Gold has traditionally shown a negative correlation with U.S. real yields, yet it has continued to rise while 10-year real yields have moved higher.
The bank said intervention by the U.S. Treasury in the foreign exchange market, specifically the yen, and in the long-end Treasury market has increased demand for haven assets such as gold, the Swiss franc and Bitcoin. Goldman upgraded gold to overweight from neutral and set a 12-month target of $5,275 per ounce, implying about 19% upside.
Equity leadership shifts as momentum unwinds
Goldman said the defining feature of the summer equity rotation was a sharp drawdown in the momentum factor. Crowded long positions in technology stocks were unwound, while capital rotated into energy, financials and health care. The S&P 500 remained range-bound, but leadership beneath the surface changed materially.
Peter Oppenheimer, Goldman’s global equity strategist, said earnings growth is spreading from AI infrastructure into a broader set of industries. During the second-quarter earnings season, the median S&P 500 company posted 14% earnings-per-share growth. Excluding AI infrastructure, earnings growth for the rest of the market also reached a cycle high. Goldman said improving market breadth remains central to its pro-cyclical positioning.
The bank kept an overweight view on U.S. equities, Asia Pacific ex-Japan and Japanese equities, while staying underweight Europe. Its 12-month targets imply about 26% total return potential for Asia Pacific ex-Japan at 1,120 and about 12% upside for Japan’s Topix at 4,600.
Sovereign bonds sold off as yields moved higher
Goldman said global sovereign bonds were sold off over the summer, pushing long-end yields close to post-global-financial-crisis highs. The bank said the move was driven mainly by real yields and term premium rather than inflation expectations.
U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rose from 4.3% at the end of June to around 4.8%. Goldman expects the 10-year yield to fall back to 4.26% over the next 12 months, implying about 6% total return.
In credit, Goldman kept overweight recommendations on both U.S. investment-grade and high-yield bonds. The report said credit spreads continued to tighten even as yields moved up, which points to resilient corporate fundamentals. Goldman expects 12-month total returns of about 9.5% for U.S. investment-grade debt and about 7.6% for high-yield bonds.
Asset allocation stance
Goldman said it is maintaining a pro-cyclical allocation framework in the current macro backdrop.
- Equities: overweight the U.S., Asia Pacific ex-Japan and Japan; underweight Europe.
- Bonds: overweight U.S. and German government bonds; underweight Japanese government bonds.
- Credit: overweight U.S. investment-grade and high-yield debt.
- Commodities: overweight gold; neutral on oil and copper.
- Currencies: the U.S. dollar remains supported by rate-hike expectations, while the euro faces downside pressure.
According to the report, nominal growth remains strong enough to support risk assets, while higher yields and energy prices are increasing cross-asset volatility. Goldman said gold’s strength during a rise in yields signals a change in market narrative.
This article is based on a整理 and interpretation of a third-party brokerage research report from Goldman Sachs dated Sept. 7, 2026, combined with public market information, as cited in the source material. The ratings, target prices, earnings forecasts and related judgments referenced in the source material reflect the views of Goldman analysts and represent the position of their institution, not investment advice.