Goldman Sachs said the U.S. economy remains broadly balanced and that the AI boom has not turned into broad-based inflation pressure, according to an Aug. 30 U.S. economic analysis report. The report found no clear signs of overheating at the macro level, though it identified localized tightness in electrical equipment, machinery manufacturing, and professional services because of AI-related demand.
Written by Rita.
Some Federal Reserve officials have recently pointed to resource constraints tied to the AI boom as a source of inflation pressure. Goldman said it used industry-level data, Beige Book text analysis, and alternative data for services sectors to map capacity constraints across the economy.
Labor market conditions are broadly balanced
Goldman used a job-worker gap measure to assess labor tightness across industries, saying the metric captures labor market conditions better than the unemployment rate.
The bank said most industries now show job-worker gaps below pre-pandemic levels. In a smaller set of sectors, including wholesale trade, healthcare, and professional services, the gap remains slightly above pre-pandemic readings, but has retreated sharply from peak levels and has not started tightening again. A labor shortage index built from Beige Book text across the 12 Federal Reserve districts showed labor tightness near historical averages across regions.
On wages, Goldman tracks roughly 90 sub-industries and said about 35% of them are posting nominal wage growth above 4%, a pace it said is consistent with the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target. That share is slightly above the 25% average recorded from 1990 to 2019, but far below the roughly 90% peak seen in 2022.
Goldman also said its labor market slack indicator is 1 percentage point above the end of the previous cycle, while wage growth has already moved below the level consistent with a 2% inflation target.
Manufacturing pressure is concentrated in AI-linked equipment
For manufacturing, Goldman said most industries are still far from capacity limits and retain room to raise production.
Electrical equipment and machinery manufacturing are the main exceptions. Both are approaching recent business-cycle peaks in capacity utilization, which the report said reflects strong demand tied to AI infrastructure buildout.
Goldman also examined overtime hours as a leading indicator of capacity pressure. It estimated that overtime leads capacity utilization by about three to six months. That measure remains below the peaks seen across industries over the past two decades, pointing to limited near-term capacity pressure risk.
Services utilization stays low overall, with professional services standing out
Because there is no official capacity utilization series for services, Goldman built utilization indicators for seven service industries using alternative data, including air cargo load factors, hotel occupancy, and retail sales per square foot. Those seven industries account for about 30% of U.S. GDP.
Most service industries remain well below their peak utilization levels from the past 20 years, the report said. Professional and business services are the main exception. Goldman said consulting activity that helps companies carry out AI transitions is running close to capacity in the short term.
Its combined services capacity utilization index has now returned to pre-pandemic levels and sits slightly above its long-run average. Goldman estimated that the index is contributing about 10 basis points to core services excluding housing PCE inflation, well below the 30 to 40 basis points seen in 2021 and 2022.
Composite bottleneck tracker remains near pre-pandemic levels
Goldman combined labor, manufacturing, and services indicators into a single bottleneck tracker designed to monitor industries where job-worker gaps, wage growth, or capacity constraints are elevated at the same time.
The tracker has risen slightly in recent months, mainly reflecting wider job-worker gaps after labor market conditions strengthened in some sub-industries in the second half of 2025. Even so, the overall level remains in line with pre-pandemic conditions, suggesting capacity pressure has not spread widely across the economy.
Goldman’s conclusion was that the U.S. economy is not broadly overheating. Instead, localized bottlenecks are concentrated in a small group of AI-related sectors, with electrical equipment, machinery manufacturing, and professional services the three areas it said warrant attention.
This article is a compiled interpretation by Chaoxiang Research of a third-party brokerage research report from Goldman Sachs dated Aug. 30, 2026, combined with public market information. Any ratings, target prices, earnings forecasts, and related judgments cited in the piece reflect the views of the brokerage analysts and their institution, not those of Chaoxiang Research, and do not constitute investment advice.
Markets carry risk, and decisions should be made independently. The article should not be used as a basis for buying or selling any security.
Chaoxiang Research @chaoxiangooo
