The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has charged Google software engineer Michele Spagnuolo in New York, alleging he used confidential search ranking data to trade prediction contracts on Polymarket and made nearly $1.2 million between October and December 2025. Federal prosecutors have also brought criminal charges tied to the same conduct.
Complaint centers on unreleased Google search rankings
According to the CFTC, Spagnuolo is a Swiss resident and worked at Google during the period covered by the complaint. Regulators said his job gave him access to sensitive internal information linked to Google’s 2025 Year in Search rankings before that information was made public. The agency alleges he used that nonpublic data as the basis for trades on Polymarket.
The complaint said Spagnuolo traded at least 23 prediction market contracts. Those contracts included markets such as “#1 Searched Person on Google this year” and “Top 5 Most Searched People on Google 2025.” Regulators also alleged that he used the Polymarket account name “AlphaRaccoon” and placed trades with near-perfect accuracy.
CFTC seeks disgorgement, penalties, and trading bans
The agency argued that Spagnuolo violated duties of trust and confidentiality owed to Google. In its civil action, the CFTC asked for restitution, disgorgement, civil monetary penalties, trading bans, registration bans, and a permanent injunction.
On May 27, the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York unsealed criminal charges against Spagnuolo. The criminal complaint described conduct similar to the CFTC’s civil filing. The regulator also said the U.S. Attorney’s Office assisted in the investigation.
Prediction market insider trading faces closer scrutiny
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig said the agency would keep pursuing fraud and insider trading in prediction markets, adding that enforcement staff would remain “an aggressive cop on the beat.” David Miller, Director of Enforcement at the CFTC, said employees who handle confidential business information cannot use it for personal gain, and that the agency will continue targeting fraud, abuse, and market manipulation in markets under its jurisdiction.
The case adds pressure on prediction market platforms and event-based contracts. In the complaint, regulators said the trades relied directly on unreleased Google search ranking data, placing the use of nonpublic commercial information at the center of the case.