Grayscale says Bitcoin’s correlation with gold has climbed above 50%

Grayscale’s head of research, Zach Pandl, said Bitcoin may be starting to trade less like a high-beta risk asset and more like a scarce store-of-value asset. Over the past year, Bitcoin behaved more like risk assets during the AI-driven rally, but that pattern may be changing. Its 90-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 has fallen to about 33% from more than 60%, while its correlation with gold has risen from just above zero at the start of the year to more than 50%. According to Grayscale, the shift may show that investors are putting more weight on Bitcoin’s scarcity, monetary independence, and store-of-value characteristics. Pandl also pointed to macro conditions in the United States, where federal debt recently surpassed $40 trillion. Persistent fiscal deficits and rising long-term Treasury yields, he said, are drawing attention back to assets that can hedge against weakening fiscal and monetary fundamentals. Pandl added that Bitcoin has no central issuer, follows transparent issuance rules, and has a fixed maximum supply of 21 million coins. In an environment where the long-term purchasing power of fiat currencies is being reassessed, he said Bitcoin could serve as a scarce and more liquid alternative to gold. He added that Bitcoin and other scarce digital assets may be moving into a more favorable market phase.